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Global Banks, Financial Shocks And International Business Cycles: Evidence From An Estimated Model

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  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using US and Euro Area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key US and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for US real activity. Banking shocks account for about 3%-5% of the unconditional variance of US GDP and for 4%-14% of the variance of EA GDP. During the Great Recession (2007-09), banking shocks accounted for about 12%-20% of the fall in US and EA GDP, and for more than a third of the fall in EA investment and employment.

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  • Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks And International Business Cycles: Evidence From An Estimated Model," CAMA Working Papers 2013-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-30
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; global banking; real activity; investment; Bayesian econometrics.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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