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Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model

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  • Kollmann, Robert

Abstract

This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using US and Euro Area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key US and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for US real activity. During the Great Recession (2007-09), banking shocks accounted for about 20% of the fall in US and EA GDP, and for more than half of the fall in EA investment and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kollmann, Robert, 2012. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8985
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian econometrics; Financial crisis; Global banking; investment; Real activity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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