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Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model

  • Kollmann, Robert

This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using US and Euro Area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key US and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for US real activity. During the Great Recession (2007-09), banking shocks accounted for about 20% of the fall in US and EA GDP, and for more than half of the fall in EA investment and employment.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8985.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8985
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  1. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 77-81, May.
  2. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal policy, banks and the financial crisis," Working Paper Research 234, National Bank of Belgium.
  3. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 566-584, May.
  4. David Aikman & Matthias Paustian, 2006. "Bank capital, asset prices and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 305, Bank of England.
  5. P. Jacob & G. Peersman, 2008. "Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/544, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  6. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2011. "Leverage as a Predictor for Real Activity and Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 8327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2008. "Investment Shocks and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Gregory de Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2008. "Financial (in)stability, supervision and liquidity injections: a dynamic general equilibrium approach," BCL working papers 35, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  10. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the internationalbusiness cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CAMA Working Papers 2011-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Can Structural Small Open Economy Models Account for the Influence of Foreign Disturbances?," NBER Working Papers 14547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," NBER Working Papers 4975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2011. "Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 427-442, April.
  15. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2011. "The great escape? A quantitative evaluation of the Fed’s liquidity facilities," Staff Reports 520, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta Reátegui, Vicente, 2006. "Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model: What is Important and What is Not," CEPR Discussion Papers 5957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Robert Kollmann & Philippe Martin, 2010. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
  18. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  21. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2011. "Stabilization Policy and Boom-Bust Cycles - Monetary and Macro-Prudential Rules," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  22. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 421, Boston College Department of Economics.
  24. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
  25. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  26. repec:dgr:kubcen:200958 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Robert KOLLMANN, 2011. "Global Banking and International Business Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 20, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  28. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, June.
  29. Skander Van den Heuvel, 2005. "The Welfare Cost of Bank Capital Requirements," 2005 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  30. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  31. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2010. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 23-44, February.
  32. Césaire Meh & Kevin Moran, 2008. "The Role of Bank Capital in the Propagation of Shocks," Working Papers 08-36, Bank of Canada.
  33. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
  34. Robert Kollmann, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7640, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  35. Geweke, John, 2001. "Bayesian econometrics and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 11-15, January.
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