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Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model

  • Kollmann, Robert

This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using US and Euro Area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key US and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for US real activity. During the Great Recession (2007-09), banking shocks accounted for about 20% of the fall in US and EA GDP, and for more than half of the fall in EA investment and employment.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8985.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8985
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  28. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Consumption-Real Exchange Rate Anomaly," CEPR Discussion Papers 7452, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
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  34. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
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  38. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704.
  39. Kollmann, Robert, 1991. ""Essays on International Business Cycles", PhD thesis, Economics Department, University of Chicago, 1991," MPRA Paper 69905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2010. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 23-44, February.
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