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International transmission of financial shocks in an estimated DSGE model

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  • Alpanda, Sami
  • Aysun, Uluc

Abstract

This paper investigates the transmission of financial shocks across large economies. To quantify these effects, we estimate a two-region open economy DSGE model that includes frictions in credit markets. The baseline model fails to replicate the high correlation between the U.S. and Euro Area macroeconomic variables. Allowing for an ad hoc, cross-regional correlation in financial shocks considerably improves the model's ability to match the data. We extend the baseline model by including global banks, and generate an endogenous cross-regional correlation of borrowing costs. Simulations demonstrate large spillover effects, and highlight the importance of including frictions in international financial contracts for more accurately capturing the high cross-regional correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Alpanda, Sami & Aysun, Uluc, 2014. "International transmission of financial shocks in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 21-55.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:21-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.04.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Aysun, Uluc & Lee, Sanglim, 2014. "Can time-varying risk premiums explain the excess returns in the interest rate parity condition?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 78-100.
    2. PIROVANO, Mara, 2013. "International financial integration, credit frictions and exchange rate regimes," Working Papers 2013015, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    3. Uluc Aysun, 2016. "Searching for the source of macroeconomic integration across advanced economies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 316-339.
    4. repec:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9434-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    6. Uluc Aysun & Sanglim Lee, 2013. "The determinants of the deviations from the interest rate parity condition," Working Papers 2013-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    7. Uluc Aysun & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2017. "The common sources of business cycles in Trans-Pacific countries and the U.S.? A comparison with NAFTA," Working Papers 2017-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    8. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    9. Aysun, Uluc, 2016. "Bank size and macroeconomic shock transmission: Does the credit channel operate through large or small banks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 117-139.
    10. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.
    11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Pengfei Jia, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy Coordination in a Currency Union'," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 235, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    12. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:159-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "Endogenous Asymmetric Shocks in the Eurozone. The Role of Animal Spirits," CEPR Discussion Papers 11887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Uluc Aysun & Stefan Avdjiev & Ralf Hepp, 2017. "What drives local lending by global banks?," Working Papers 2017-02, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    15. Jorda, Oscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M. & Ward, Felix, 2018. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," Working Paper Series 2018-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; Financial accelerator; International business cycles; Global banks;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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