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Determinants of international bank lending to emerging market countries

  • Serge Jeanneau
  • Marian Micu

    (Barclays - San Francisco, Ca Office)

Registered author(s):

    This paper analyses the determinants of international bank lending to the largest countries in Asia and Latin America through a framework based on "push"/"pull" factors. Our results show that both types of factors determine international bank lending. However, they differ from those of the early 1990s' literature in that aggregate lending to emerging market countries appears to have been procyclical to growth in lending countries rather than countercyclical. Moreover, the sharp increase in short-term lending during the 1990s seems to have been largely a pull phenomenon. Additionally, there is evidence that fixed rate regimes encouraged international bank lending, while bandwagon and contagion effects were also present. The introduction of the Basel Accord on capital adequacy does not appear to have played a significant role in international bank lending to emerging economies.

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    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 112.

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    Length: 47 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:112
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    1. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Linda S. Goldberg, 2001. "When Is U.S. Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile?," NBER Working Papers 8209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    6. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Landerretche, Oscar & Valdés, Rodrigo, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," CEPR Discussion Papers 2811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Portes, Richard & Rey, Hélène, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 2225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994. "The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1312, The World Bank.
    9. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 1999. "Do capital controls influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Angelos A. Antzoulatos, 1997. "On the determinants and resilience of bond flows to LDCs, 1990-1995: evidence from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico," Research Paper 9703, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5718, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, March.
    16. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
    17. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
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