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When liberal policies reflect external shocks, what do we learn?

  • Bartolini, Leonardo
  • Drazen, Allan

We present a model where policies of free capital mobility can signal governments' future policies, but the informativeness of the signal depends on the path of world interest rates. Capital flows to emerging markets reflect investors' perception of these markets' political risk. With low world interest rates, emerging markets experience a capital inflow and engage in a widespread policy of free capital mobility; with higher rates, only sufficiently committed countries allow free capital mobility, whereas others impose controls to trap capital onshore, thus signaling future policies affecting capital mobility. These predictions are consistent with the recent experience of capital flows and policies affecting capital mobility in developing countries.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (May)
Pages: 249-273

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:42:y:1997:i:3-4:p:249-273
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "Capital-Account Liberalization as a Signal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 138-54, March.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Vittorio Grilli & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 95/31, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Barro, Robert J., 1986. "Reputation in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 3-20, January.
  5. Donald J. Mathieson & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1992. "Liberalization of the Capital Account; Experiences and Issues," IMF Working Papers 92/46, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  7. David Backus & John Driffill, 1984. "Inflation and Reputation," Working Papers 560, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 1986. "Reputational Constraints on Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August.
  10. Giovannini, Alberto & de Melo, Martha, 1993. "Government Revenue from Financial Repression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 953-63, September.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Capital Flows, the Current Account, and the Real Exchange Rate: Consequences of Liberalization and Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 1526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1995. "Capital inflows to Latin America with reference to the Asian experience," MPRA Paper 13840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Bacchetta, Philippe, 1992. "Liberalization of Capital Movements and of the Domestic Financial System," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 465-74, November.
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