IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v50y1996i1p1-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s

Author

Listed:
  • Kaminsky, Graciela L.
  • Pereira, Alfredo

Abstract

One of the salient characteristics of the 1980s is the growth collapse of the Latin American debtor countries. The debt-overhang literature claims that the debt crisis is the main reason for the growth collapse. However, previous empirical work has failed to support this hypothesis. We reexamine this hypothesis further using simulation and econometric methods. We find that once we account for the effects of social inequality on government policy and consumption, the burden of servicing the debt becomes an important factor in explaining the collapse in investment and output growth in Latin America. We draw some conclusions for the 1990s.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Pereira, Alfredo, 1996. "The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-24, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:50:y:1996:i:1:p:1-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304-3878(96)00002-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 271-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rudiger Dornbusch & Juan Carlos de Pablo, 1989. "Debt and Macroeconomic Instability in Argentina," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 37-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s," International Economic Association Series, in: Edmar L. Bacha (ed.), Economics in a Changing World, chapter 6, pages 123-148, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    7. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    8. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    10. Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 437-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Arrau, Patricio, 1990. "How does the debt crisis affect investment and growth? : a neoclassical growth model applied to Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 378, The World Bank.
    12. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the IndustrialDemocracies," NBER Working Papers 2682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    16. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    17. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    18. Cochrane, John H, 1989. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 319-337, June.
    19. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Growth and external debt," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9302, CEPREMAP.
    20. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Social Conflict and Populist Policies in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 2897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. "Buybacks, Exit Bonds, and the Optimality of Debt and Liquidity Relief," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 49-70, February.
    22. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
    23. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s," MPRA Paper 8196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Cukierman, Alex & Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 537-555, June.
    25. Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, 1984. "Latin American Debt: I Don't Think We Are in Kansas Anymore," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 335-403.
    26. Borensztein, Eduardo, 1990. "Debt overhang, credit rationing and investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-335, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kalteier, Eva-Maria & Posch, Peter N., 2013. "Sovereign asset values and implications for the credit market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 53-60.
    2. Geske Dijkstra & Niels Hermes, 2001. "The Uncertainty of Debt Service Payments and Economic Growth of HIPCs: Is there a Case for Debt Relief?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-122, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Mr. Tito Cordella & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 2005/223, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Takeshi Tashiro, 2013. "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-43.
    5. Knoll, Martin, 2013. "The heavily indebted poor countries and the multilateral debt relief initiative: A test case for the validity of the debt overhang hypothesis," Discussion Papers 2013/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Alejandro Guerson, 2006. "Fiscal Policy for Good: Reducing Macroeconomic Volatility in Uruguay," EcoMod2006 272100035, EcoMod.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1995. "Saving and real interest rates in developing countries," MPRA Paper 13352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Muhammad Mustapha Abdullahi & Nor Aznin Bt Abu Bakar & Sallahuddin B. Hassan, 2016. "Debt Overhang versus Crowding Out Effects: Understanding the Impact of External Debts on Capital Formation in Theory," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 271-278.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2016. "Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 89-111.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2015. "The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as Told by Carlos F. Díaz-Alejandro," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2015), pages 187-217, October.
    11. Miles B. Cahill & Paul N. Isely, 2000. "The Relationship between Aid and Debt in Developing Countries," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 44(2), pages 78-91, October.
    12. Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2017. "Corporate failures and the denomination of corporate bonds: Evidence from emerging Asian economies over two financial crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 84-97.
    13. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Debt on Economic Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 471-484, September.
    14. Eleftherios Thalassinos & Erginbay Ugurlu & Yusuf Muratoglu, 2012. "Income Inequality and Inflation in the EU," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 127-140.
    15. Juan F. Guerra‐Salas, 2018. "Latin America'S Declining Skill Premium: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 620-636, January.
    16. Mitchell Christopher W., 2016. "The structure of financial markets and the form of state bailouts, 1974–2009," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 97-122, August.
    17. Al-Marhubi, Fahim, 1997. "A note on the link between income inequality and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 317-319, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    2. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "An econometric model of capital flight from developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 579, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J., 1995. "The surge in capital inflows to developing countries : prospects and policy response," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1473, The World Bank.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Nakano, Yoshiaki, 2002. "Economic growth with foreign saving?," Textos para discussão 118, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    7. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Gooptu, Sudarshan, 1996. "Emerging policy issues in development finance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 85-100.
    9. Giuseppe Di Liddo & Cosimo Magazzino & Francesco Porcelli, 2015. "Decentralization, Growth And Optimal Government Size In The Italian Regional Framework," Working Papers 0115, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2015.
    10. Henri Audigé, 2014. "Net flows to emerging markets’ funds and the U.S. monetary policy after the subprime crisis," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Griffith-Jones, Stephany & Montes, Manuel F. & Nasution, Anwar (ed.), 2001. "Short-Term Capital Flows and Economic Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296867.
    12. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    13. Giorgio Bellettini & Carlotta Berti Ceroni, 1999. "Is Social Security Really Bad for Growth?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 796-819, October.
    14. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    15. Asea, Patrick K & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1996. "Economic Growth and Economic Consequences of External Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: Introduction," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 1-6, October.
    16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    17. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    18. Rivera, Berta & Currais, Luis, 2004. "Public Health Capital and Productivity in the Spanish Regions: A Dynamic Panel Data Model," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 871-885, May.
    19. Goopu, Sudarshan, 1996. "The analysis of emerging policy issues in development finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1589, The World Bank.
    20. Norman Gemmell, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Growth Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:50:y:1996:i:1:p:1-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.