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Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation

Author

Listed:
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.

    (Harvard University)

  • Tashiro, Takeshi

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

It is well understood that investment serves as a shock absorber at the time of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, is perplexing. For the nine Asian economies we focus on in this study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998-2012 than its average level in the decade before the crisis; if China and India are excluded, the estimated decline exceeds 9 percent. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance usually increases markedly as public and private sectors look inward when external financing becomes prohibitively costly, altogether impossible, or just plain undesirable from a financial stability perspective. Also, previous studies have not made a connection between the sustained reserve accumulation and the persistent and significantly lower levels of investment in the region. Put differently, reserve accumulation involves an official institution (i.e., the central bank) funneling domestic saving abroad and thus competing with domestic borrowers in the market for loanable funds. We suggest a broader definition of crowding out, driven importantly by increased home bias in finance and by official capital outflows. We present evidence from Asia to support this interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen M. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2013. "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-43.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:00008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2013. "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-43.
    2. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2016. "Investment, asset market, and the relative unit labor cost in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 339-364, November.
    3. Alberola, Enrique & Erce, Aitor & Serena, José Maria, 2016. "International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 151-171.
    4. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    5. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Jimena Zúñiga, 2015. "Varieties of capital flows: What do we know," Business School Working Papers 2015-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    6. Edd Denbee & Carsten Jung & Francesco Paternò, 2016. "Stitching together the global financial safety net," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 322, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Enrique Alberola & Aitor Erce & José María Serena, 2012. "International reserves and gross capital flows. Dynamics during financial stress," Working Papers 1211, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    8. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2016. "Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 89-111.
    9. George Verikios, 2015. "The implications for trade and FDI flows from liberalisation of China's capital account," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-251, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    10. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Capital Flows and Private Investment in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(3, Cierre), pages 65-99.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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