Goodbye Inflation Targeting, Hello Fear of Floating? Latin America after the Global Financial Crisis
This paper focuses on some of the macroeconomic risks that lie ahead for Latin America. The discussion is informed by my work on crises and capital flows and their macroeconomic consequences. The trends and initial conditions that allowed the region to weather the global economic storm of 2008-2009 are discussed, as is the subsequent reversal of some of those benign trends. I review the historical patterns connecting large capital inflow surges, or “capital flow bonanzas,” with the likelihood of a variety of crises—banking, currency, external default and inflation. For Latin America, in particular, large capital flow bonanzas have seldom ended well. The implications for inflation of importing (via less than fully flexible exchange rates) the expansionary policy of the “North” are discussed.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Ernesto Talvi, 2005. "Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile," NBER Working Papers 11153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996.
"Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
- Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Fear of Floating,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates,"
in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973.
- Carmen M. & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011.
"The Liquidation of Government Debt,"
Working Paper Series
WP11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Carmen Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2015. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," IMF Working Papers 15/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," BIS Working Papers 363, Bank for International Settlements.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 16893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- World Bank, 2013. "International Debt Statistics 2013," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12226.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.