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Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment?

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  • Reinhart, Carmen M.
  • Reinhart, Vincent
  • Tashiro, Takeshi

Abstract

It is understood that investment serves as a shock absorber in times of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, is perplexing. For the Asian economies we study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998–2014 than its average level in the decade before the Asian crisis; the decline is greater if China is excluded. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance increases markedly as public and private sectors look inward when external financing becomes prohibitively costly or undesirable from a financial stability perspective. Reserve accumulation involves an official institution (i.e., the central bank) funneling domestic saving abroad and thus competing with domestic borrowers in the market for loanable funds. We suggest a broader definition of crowding out and leakages, driven importantly by rising home bias in finance and by official capital outflows. We present evidence from Asia and advanced European economies with managed currencies to support this interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2016. "Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 89-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:63:y:2016:i:c:p:89-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.11.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Ren & Hou, Jie & He, Xiaobei, 2017. "Real estate price and heterogeneous investment behavior in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-280.
    2. Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2018. "Reserve Accumulation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth," 2018 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    4. Steiner, Andreas Christian & Saadma, Torsten, 2016. "Measuring De Facto Financial Openness: A New Index," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145575, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    Keywords

    Crises; Growth; Investment; Reserves; Debt; Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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