IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account

  • Davis, J. Scott

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Mack, Adrienne

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Phoa, Wesley

    (The Capital Group Companies)

  • Vandenabeele, Anne

    (The Capital Group Companies)

What is the marginal effect of an increase in the private sector debt-to-GDP ratio on the probability of a banking crisis? This paper shows that the marginal effect of rising debt levels depends on an economy's external position. When the current account is in surplus or in balance, the marginal effect of an increase in debt is rather small; a 10 percentage point increase in the private sector debt-to-GDP ratio increases the probability of a crisis by about 1 to 2 percentage points. However, when the economy is running a sizable current account deficit, implying that any increase in the debt ratio is financed through foreign borrowing, this marginal effect can be large. When a country has a current account deficit of 10% of GDP (which is similar to the value in the Eurozone periphery on the eve of the recent crisis) a 10 percentage point increase in the private sector debt ratio leads to a 10 percentage point increase in the probability of a crisis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2014/0178.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 178.

as
in new window

Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 13 May 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:178
Note: Published as: Davis, J. Scott, Adrienne Mack, Wesley Phoa and Anne Vandenabeele (2016), "Credit Booms, Banking Crises, and the Current Account," Journal of International Money and Finance 60: 360-377.
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973, 06-2016.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series rwp11-024, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Esteban R. Vesperoni, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit Booms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 415-430, 08.
  4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Luc Laeven & Fabián Valencia, 2013. "Systemic Banking Crises Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(2), pages 225-270, June.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 181, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  8. Bordo, Michael & James, Harold, 2014. "The European Crisis in the Context of the History of Previous Financial Crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 275-284.
  9. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2010. "Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 15876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies," Working Paper Series 2516, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  11. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  13. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2011. "External Adjustment and the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/197, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2011. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990-2010," NBER Working Papers 17502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 14321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
  18. Enrique Mendoza & Marco Terrones, 2012. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 670, Central Bank of Chile.
  19. Norman Loayza & Romain Ranciere, 2005. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/170, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Philip Lane & Peter McQuade, 2013. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp428, IIIS.
  21. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences," Working Papers Series 3, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  22. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," NBER Working Papers 16243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April.
  24. repec:nsr:niesrd:351 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," NBER Working Papers 17621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-65, January.
  27. Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez-García, 2011. "A cross-country quarterly database of real house prices: a methodological note," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 99, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  28. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  30. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Heather D. Gibson & Stephan G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2011. "The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/25, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  33. Davis, J. Scott, 2014. "Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 99-111.
  34. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  35. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Charles W. Calomiris & Stephen H. Haber, 2015. "Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10177-2, 06-2016.
  38. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
  39. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  40. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
  42. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
  43. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2011. "Financial Flows, Financial Crises, and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 8611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Discussion Papers 27, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  45. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," NBER Working Papers 15512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
  47. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
  48. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Jith Jayaratne & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 639-670.
  50. Schmitz, Birgit & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2011. "Current account imbalances and financial integration in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1676-1695.
  51. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  52. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
  53. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "The impact of global imbalances: Does the current account balance help to predict banking crises in OECD countries?," NIESR Discussion Papers 351, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.