IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy

Listed author(s):
  • Hume, Michael

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Sentance, Andrew

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

The recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it. In this paper, we provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the credit boom and the macroeconomic context in which it developed. We find that the boom was unusually long and associated with neither particularly strong growth nor rising inflation in the economies in which it took place. We show that this type of credit and financial cycle is hard to reconcile with existing economic theory and argue that, while the 'global savings glut' may account for the cycle's initial phase, other factors - such as the conduct of monetary policy and perceptions of declining macroeconomic risk - were more important from the mid-2000s onwards. We conclude by identifying some of the challenges now facing macroeconomics and policy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/externalmpcpapers/extmpcpaper0027.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 27.

as
in new window

Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2009
Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0027
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH

Phone: +44 (020) 7601 4444
Fax: +44 (020) 7601 4771
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/externalmpcpapers/index.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-588, August.
  2. Shiller, Robert J., 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models," Working Papers 29, Yale University, Department of Economics.
  3. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  4. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
  5. Sharpe, William F., 1967. "Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 76-84, June.
  6. John Taylor, 2007. "Housing and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 07-003, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert J. Gordon, 1980. "Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas," NBER Working Papers 0459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties; Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated". "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  13. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
  16. William R. White, 2006. "Procyclicality in the financial system: do we need a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework?," BIS Working Papers 193, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 0790, European Central Bank.
  18. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  19. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US Imbalances: The Role of Technology and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6110, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
  21. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Benjamin M. Friedman & Milton Friedman & A. W. Clausen, 1980. "Postwar Changes in the American Financial Markets," NBER Chapters, in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 9-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
  24. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1982. "Debt and Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Changing Roles of Debt and Equity in Financing U.S. Capital Formation, pages 91-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2008. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1653-1687, July.
  27. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International capital flows and U.S. interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 840, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
  29. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Postwar Changes in the American Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Alberto Martin, 2004. "Endogenous credit cycles," Economics Working Papers 916, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2008.
  31. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Direct investment, rising real wages and the absorption of excess labor in the periphery," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  32. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
  33. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
  34. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "Debt and Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 0704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Philip Cagan, 1965. "Determinants and Effects of Changes in the Stock of Money, 1875–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number caga65-1.
  36. Nickell, Stephen, 1990. "Inflation and the UK Labour Market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 26-35, Winter.
  37. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
  38. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W. R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
  39. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Smith, Adam, 1776. "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number smith1776.
  41. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2009. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(270), pages 357-358, 09.
  42. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  43. Zvi Hercowitz & Jeffrey C. Campbell, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," 2005 Meeting Papers 120, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  44. Robert L. Hetzel, 1987. "Henry Thornton: seminal monetary theorist and father of the modern central bank," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jul, pages 3-16.
  45. William R. White, 2006. "Is price stability enough?," BIS Working Papers 205, Bank for International Settlements.
  46. Barry Eichengreen & Kris Mitchener, 2003. "The Great Depression as a credit boom gone wrong," BIS Working Papers 137, Bank for International Settlements.
  47. Charles Bean, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 8(1), pages 57-73, January.
  48. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
  49. P. Davidson., 2006. "The Post Keynesian School," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 8.
  50. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
  51. Bracke, Thierry & Fidora, Michael, 2008. "Global liquidity glut or global savings glut? A structural VAR approach," Working Paper Series 0911, European Central Bank.
  52. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2006. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and 'Self-insurance'," CEPR Discussion Papers 6000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  53. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bank of England Website)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.