IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Boom-Bust Cycles: Leveraging, Complex Securities, and Asset Prices

  • Willi Semmler
  • Lucas Bernard

Recent history suggests that many boom-bust cycles are naturally driven by linkages between the credit market and asset prices. Additionally, new structured securities have been developed, e.g., MBS, CDOs, and CDS, which have acted as instruments of risk transfer. We show that there is a certain non-robustness in the pricing of these instruments and we create a model in which their role in the recent financial market meltdown, and in which the mechanism by which they exacerbate leverage cycles, is explicit. We first discuss the extent to which complex securities can amplify boom-bust cycles. Then, we propose a model in which distinct financial market boom-bust cycles emerge naturally. We demonstrate the interaction of leveraging and asset pricing in a dynamical model and spell out some implications for monetary policy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c016_034.

in new window

Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_034
Contact details of provider: Postal: Niels Bohrs Vej 9, 6700 Esbjerg
Phone: +45 6550 2233
Fax: +45 6550 1090
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Deflation, Credit and Asset Prices," Working Papers 132003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Andreas Röthig & Willi Semmler & Peter Flaschel, 2006. "Hedging, Speculation, and Investment in Balance-Sheet Triggered Currency Crises," Research Paper Series 173, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Semmler, Willi & Sieveking, Malte, 2000. "Critical debt and debt dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1121-1144, June.
  4. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 431-69, April.
  5. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
  6. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
  7. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Marcus Miller & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2010. "Leverage and Asset Bubbles: Averting Armageddon with Chapter 11?," NBER Working Papers 15817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
  11. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
  12. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
  13. Robert J Shiller, 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Models," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001682, UCLA Department of Economics.
  14. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  15. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," Working Paper Series WP-99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  16. Andrea Finicelli, 2007. "House price developments and fundamentals in the United States," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 7, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
  18. Röthig, Andreas & Semmler, Willi & Flaschel, Peter, 2006. "Hedging, speculation, and investment in balance-sheet triggered currency crises," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 168, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
  19. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May.
  20. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2012. "Regime dependence of the fiscal multiplier," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 502-522.
  21. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  23. Robert Shiller, 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2436, Yale School of Management.
  24. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 101-131.
  25. Shiller, Robert J., 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models," Working Papers 29, Yale University, Department of Economics.
  26. Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
  27. Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio & Rosser, J. Barkley, 2011. "The Period Of Financial Distress In Speculative Markets: Interacting Heterogeneous Agents And Financial Constraints," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 60-79, February.
  28. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1751, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  29. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  30. Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin & Tuzel, Selale, 2007. "Housing, consumption and asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 531-569, March.
  31. Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler & Malte Sieveking, 2005. "Creditworthiness and thresholds in a credit market model with multiple equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 287-315, 02.
  32. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  33. Willi Semmler & Lucas Bernard (ed.), 2007. "The Foundations of Credit Risk Analysis," Books, Edward Elgar, number 12648.
  34. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit spreads and monetary policy," Staff Reports 385, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  35. Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2008. "Asset pricing with loss aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3253-3274, October.
  36. Grune, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "Using dynamic programming with adaptive grid scheme for optimal control problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2427-2456, December.
  37. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
  38. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  39. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, liquidity, and monetary policy," Staff Reports 360, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  40. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  41. Marcus Miller & Joseph Stiglitz, 1999. "Bankruptcy Protection Against Macroeconomics Shocks: The case for a 'super Chapter 11'," CSGR Hot Topics: Research on Current Issues 08, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Pedersen)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.