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Boom-Bust Cycles: Leveraging, Complex Securities, and Asset Prices

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  • Willi Semmler
  • Lucas Bernard

Abstract

Recent history suggests that many boom-bust cycles are naturally driven by linkages between the credit market and asset prices. Additionally, new structured securities have been developed, e.g., MBS, CDOs, and CDS, which have acted as instruments of risk transfer. We show that there is a certain non-robustness in the pricing of these instruments and we create a model in which their role in the recent financial market meltdown, and in which the mechanism by which they exacerbate leverage cycles, is explicit. We first discuss the extent to which complex securities can amplify boom-bust cycles. Then, we propose a model in which distinct financial market boom-bust cycles emerge naturally. We demonstrate the interaction of leveraging and asset pricing in a dynamical model and spell out some implications for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Willi Semmler & Lucas Bernard, 2011. "Boom-Bust Cycles: Leveraging, Complex Securities, and Asset Prices," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_034, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_034
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    2. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Overleveraging, financial fragility and the banking-macro link: Theory and empirical evidence," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-110, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    4. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
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    6. Asada, Toichiro & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Mouakil, Tarik & Proaño, Christian R., 2010. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: On the choice of proper policy measures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-43.
    7. Willi Semmler & Stefan Mittnik, 2012. "Estimating a Banking-Macro Model for Europe Using a Multi-Regime VAR," EcoMod2012 4122, EcoMod.
    8. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Willi Semmler & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Escape Routes from Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro Area," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: William A. Barnett & Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 163-193, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    10. Gallegati, Marco & Delli Gatti, Domenico, 2018. "Macrofinancial imbalances in historical perspective: A global crisis index," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 190-205.
    11. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit; Leverage; Mortgage; Credit Risk; Structured Finance; Leveraged Financing; Mortgage-backed Security; Collateral; Collateralized Default Obligation; Booms; Busts; Dynamic; Cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

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