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The Instability of the Banking Sector and Macrodynamics: Theory and Empirics

  • Stefan Mittnik
  • Willi Semmler

This paper studies the issue of local instability of the banking sector and how it may spillover to the macroeconomy. The banking sector is considered here as representing a wealth fund that accumulates capital assets, can heavily borrow and pays bonuses. We presume that the banking system faces not only loan losses but is also exposed to a deterioration of its balances sheets due to adverse movements in asset prices. In contrast to previous studies that use the financial accelerator – which is locally amplifying but globally stable and mean reverting – our model shows local instability and globally multiple regimes. Whereas the financial accelerator leads, in terms of econometrics, to a one-regime VAR we demonstrate the usefulness of a multi-regime VAR (MRVAR). We estimate our model for the US with a MRVAR using a constructed financial stress index and industrial production. We also undertake an impulse-response study with an MRVAR which allows us to explore regime dependent shocks. We show that the shocks have asymmetric effects depending on the regime the economy is in and the size of the shocks. As to the recently discussed unconventional monetary policy of quantitative easing we demonstrate that the effects of monetary shocks are also dependent on the size of the shocks.

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File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_16/c016_080.pdf
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Paper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c016_080.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_080
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  1. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  2. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Global dynamics in a model with search and matching in labor and capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1651-1679, September.
  3. Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group.
  4. Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-70, July.
  5. Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler & Malte Sieveking, 2005. "Creditworthiness and thresholds in a credit market model with multiple equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(2), pages 287-315, 02.
  6. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  8. Semmler, Willi & Sieveking, Malte, 2000. "Critical debt and debt dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1121-1144, June.
  9. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  11. repec:nys:sunysb:93-01 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  13. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, liquidity, and monetary policy," Staff Reports 360, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Curdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2015. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2015-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 10 Dec 2015.
  15. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  16. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  18. Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2008. "Asset pricing with loss aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3253-3274, October.
  19. Willi Semmler & Lucas Bernard (ed.), 2007. "The Foundations of Credit Risk Analysis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12648, April.
  20. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Asset pricing with dynamic programming," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 233-265, May.
  22. R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  23. Grune, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "Using dynamic programming with adaptive grid scheme for optimal control problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2427-2456, December.
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