IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/deg/conpap/c016_080.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Instability of the Banking Sector and Macrodynamics: Theory and Empirics

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Mittnik
  • Willi Semmler

Abstract

This paper studies the issue of local instability of the banking sector and how it may spillover to the macroeconomy. The banking sector is considered here as representing a wealth fund that accumulates capital assets, can heavily borrow and pays bonuses. We presume that the banking system faces not only loan losses but is also exposed to a deterioration of its balances sheets due to adverse movements in asset prices. In contrast to previous studies that use the financial accelerator – which is locally amplifying but globally stable and mean reverting – our model shows local instability and globally multiple regimes. Whereas the financial accelerator leads, in terms of econometrics, to a one-regime VAR we demonstrate the usefulness of a multi-regime VAR (MRVAR). We estimate our model for the US with a MRVAR using a constructed financial stress index and industrial production. We also undertake an impulse-response study with an MRVAR which allows us to explore regime dependent shocks. We show that the shocks have asymmetric effects depending on the regime the economy is in and the size of the shocks. As to the recently discussed unconventional monetary policy of quantitative easing we demonstrate that the effects of monetary shocks are also dependent on the size of the shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Mittnik & Willi Semmler, 2011. "The Instability of the Banking Sector and Macrodynamics: Theory and Empirics," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_080, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_16/c016_080.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2016. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 30-65.
    2. repec:nys:sunysb:93-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    6. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    8. Grune, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "Using dynamic programming with adaptive grid scheme for optimal control problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2427-2456, December.
    9. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Global dynamics in a model with search and matching in labor and capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1651-1679, September.
    10. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    11. Semmler, Willi & Sieveking, Malte, 2000. "Critical debt and debt dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1121-1144, June.
    12. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
    13. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    14. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    15. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Marco Del Negro, 2010. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed’s Non-Standard Policies," 2010 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Asset pricing with dynamic programming," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 233-265, May.
    17. Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler & Malte Sieveking, 2005. "Creditworthiness and thresholds in a credit market model with multiple equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(2), pages 287-315, February.
    18. Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-870, July.
    19. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 600-605, May.
    20. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    21. Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2008. "Asset pricing with loss aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3253-3274, October.
    22. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    23. Willi Semmler & Lucas Bernard (ed.), 2007. "The Foundations of Credit Risk Analysis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12648.
    24. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shrestha, Prakash Kumar, 2013. "Banking Ssystems, central banks and international reserve accumulation in East Asian economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-29.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    2. Willi Semmler & Stefan Mittnik, 2012. "Estimating a Banking-Macro Model for Europe Using a Multi-Regime VAR," EcoMod2012 4122, EcoMod.
    3. Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.
    4. Willi Semmler, 2011. "Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-20680-1, June.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Global dynamics in a model with search and matching in labor and capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1651-1679, September.
    7. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2012. "Regime dependence of the fiscal multiplier," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 502-522.
    8. Itai Agur & Maria Demertzis, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Excessive Bank Risk Taking," DNB Working Papers 271, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Ekkehard Ernst & Stefan Mittnik & Willi Semmler, 2016. "Interaction of Labour and Credit Market in Growth Regimes: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(3), pages 393-422, November.
    10. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Fischer, Thomas & Riedler, Jesper, 2014. "Prices, debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 95-120.
    12. Leroy, Aurélien & Pop, Adrian, 2019. "Macro-financial linkages: The role of the institutional framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 75-97.
    13. Aysun, Uluc, 2015. "Duration of bankruptcy proceedings and monetary policy effectiveness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 295-302.
    14. Guembel, Alexander & Sussman, Oren, 2010. "Liquidity, Contagion and Financial Crisis," IDEI Working Papers 664, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    15. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, May.
    16. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2015. "Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-21.
    17. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Credit Supply Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 195-232, June.
    18. House, Christopher L. & Masatlioglu, Yusufcan, 2015. "Managing markets for toxic assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 84-99.
    19. Chan, Ying Tung & Zhao, Hong, 2019. "How do credit market frictions affect carbon cycles? an estimated DSGE model approach," MPRA Paper 106987, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2020.
    20. Willi Semmler & Alexander Haider, 2016. "The perils of debt deflation in the Euro area: a multi regime model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 257-278, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehhsdk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Pedersen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehhsdk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.