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Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models

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  • Robert J. Shiller

    (Yale University)

Abstract

There has been a widespread perception in the past few years that long-term asset prices are generally high because monetary authorities have effectively kept long-term interest rates, which the market uses to discount cash flows, low. This perception is not accurate. Long-term interest rates have not been especially low. What has changed to produce high asset prices appears instead to be changes in popular economic models that people actually rely on when valuing assets. The public has mostly forgotten the concept of "real interest rate." Money illusion appears to be an important factor to consider.
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  • Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 111-134.
  • Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:38:y:2007:i:2007-2:p:111-134
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    Cited by:

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    3. P. Arestis & A.R. Gonz�lez, 2014. "Modelling the housing market in OECD countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 131-153, March.
    4. Philip Arestis Author-Email: pa267@cam.ac.uk & Ana Rosa Gonzalez-Martinez, 2017. "Housing Market in Israel: Is there a Bubble?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 64(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "Identifying and measuring the contagion channels at work in the European financial crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-134.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    7. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    8. Yoon, Gawon, 2009. "Is high real interest rate persistence an intrinsic characteristic of industrialized economies?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 359-363, March.
    9. Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.
    10. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "“In the Short Run Blasé, In the Long Run Risqué”," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 18(3), pages 181-226, August.
    11. Willi Semmler, 2011. "Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-20680-1, June.
    12. Bettendorf, Timo, 2017. "Investigating Global Imbalances: Empirical evidence from a GVAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 201-210.
    13. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2017. "‘In the Short Run Blasé, in the Long Run Risqué’. On the Effects of Monetary Policy on Bank Credit Risk-Taking in the Short versus Long Run," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(3), pages 181-226.
    14. Ge, Jiaqi, 2013. "Endogenous Rise and Collapse of Housing Prices," Staff General Research Papers Archive 36279, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    16. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jiaqi Ge, 2013. "Endogenous Formation and Collapse Of Housing Bubbles," Staff General Research Papers Archive 36277, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Ricardo Correa & Teodora Paligorova & Horacio Sapriza & Andrei Zlate, 2022. "Cross-Border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 438-481.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; Low Interest Rates; High Asset Prices; Popular Economic Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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