The Stock Market, Profit and Investment
Should managers, when making investment decisions, follow the signals given by the stock market even if those do not coincide with their own assessments of fundamental value? This paper reviews the theoretical arguments and examines the empirical evidence, constructing and using a new US time series of data on the q ratio from 1900 to 1988. We decompose q - - the ratio of the market value of corporate capital to its replacement cost - - into the product of two terms, reflecting "fundamentals" and "valuation", the ratio of market value to fundamentals. We then examine the relation of investment to each of the two, using a number of alternative proxies for fundamentals. We interpret our results as pointing, strongly but not overwhelmingly, to a larger role of "fundamentals" than of "valuation" in investment decisions.
|Date of creation:||May 1990|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, no. 1 (February 1993): 115-136.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1994.
"Stock Market Volatility and Investment: Do Only Fundamentals Matter?,"
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(242), pages 147-65, May.
- Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1990. "Stock Market Volatility And Investment: Do Only Fundamental Matter?," Working Papers 90-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981.
"Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation,"
457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
- Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1989.
"Corporate structure, liquidity, and investment: evidence from Japanese industrial groups,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil & Scharfstein, David, 1991. "Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 33-60, February.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, .
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers
_124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984.
"Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices,"
1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June.
- Jorgenson, Dale W & Yun, Kun-Young, 1986. " Tax Policy and Capital Allocation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 355-77.
- Brainard, William C. & Shoven, John B., 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 4, pages 43-104.
- William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
- LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.