IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpmi/9711004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asymmetric Information in a Competitive Market Game: Reexamining the Implications of Rational Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew O. Jackson

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • James Peck

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

We examine price formation in a simple static model with asymmetric information, an infinite number of risk neutral traders and no noise traders. Here we re-examine four results associated with rational expectations models relating to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium prices, the advantage of becoming informed, the costly acquisition of information, and the impossibility of having equilibrium prices with higher volatility than the underlying fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew O. Jackson & James Peck, 1997. "Asymmetric Information in a Competitive Market Game: Reexamining the Implications of Rational Expectations," Microeconomics 9711004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:9711004
    Note: Type of Document - postscript; prepared on pc-tex; to print on Postscript; pages: 34; figures: available from authors. comments welcome
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mic/papers/9711/9711004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mic/papers/9711/9711004.ps.gz
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    3. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik, 1982. "Revelation of Information in Strategic Market Games: A Critique of Rational Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 634R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Nov 1985.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    5. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-678, May.
    6. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    7. Milgrom, Paul R, 1979. "A Convergence Theorem for Competitive Bidding with Differential Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 679-688, May.
    8. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
    9. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    10. Allen, Beth E, 1981. "Generic Existence of Completely Revealing Equilibria for Economies with Uncertainty when Prices Convey Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1173-1199, September.
    11. Jiang Wang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 249-282.
    12. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
    13. Martin Shubik, 1977. "A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 462, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Jackson, Matthew O, 1991. "Equilibrium, Price Formation, and the Value of Private Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16.
    15. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    16. Shapley, Lloyd S & Shubik, Martin, 1977. "Trade Using One Commodity as a Means of Payment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 937-968, October.
    17. Albert S. Kyle, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 317-355.
    18. Robert Wilson, 1977. "A Bidding Model of Perfect Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(3), pages 511-518.
    19. Jackson, Matthew & Peck, James, 1991. "Speculation and price fluctuations with private, extrinsic signals," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 274-295, December.
    20. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    21. Sanford J. Grossman, 1981. "An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(4), pages 541-559.
    22. Dubey, Pradeep & Geanakoplos, John & Shubik, Martin, 1987. "The revelation of information in strategic market games : A critique of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 105-137, April.
    23. Cochrane, John H, 1992. "Explaining the Variance of Price-Dividend Ratios," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 243-280.
    24. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September.
    25. James Peck & Karl Shell, 1991. "Market Uncertainty: Correlated and Sunspot Equilibria in Imperfectly Competitive Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(5), pages 1011-1029.
    26. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    27. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
    28. Matthew O. Jackson & James Peck, 1993. "Costly Information Acquisition," Discussion Papers 1087, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    29. McAfee, R Preston & McMillan, John, 1987. "Auctions and Bidding," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 699-738, June.
    30. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    31. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meirowitz, Adam, 2005. "Deliberative Democracy or Market Democracy: Designing Institutions to Aggregate Preferences and Information," Papers 03-28-2005, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
    2. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2008. "Risk-neutral investors do not acquire information," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 156-161, September.
    3. Jamsheed Shorish, 2010. "Functional rational expectations equilibria in market games," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 43(3), pages 351-376, June.
    4. Richard McLean & James Peck & Andrew Postlewaite, 2005. "On Price-Taking Behavior in Asymmetric Information Economies," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Alessandro Citanna & John Donaldson & Herakles Polemarchakis & Paolo Siconolfi & Stephan E. Spear (ed.), Essays in Dynamic General Equilibrium Theory, pages 129-142, Springer.
    5. Levin, Dan & Peck, James & Ye, Lixin, 2007. "Bad news can be good news: Early dropouts in an English auction with multi-dimensional signals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 462-467, June.
    6. Bond, Philip & Eraslan, Hülya, 2010. "Information-based trade," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(5), pages 1675-1703, September.
    7. George M. Mukupa & Elias R. Offen, 2018. "The semi-martingale equilibrium equity premium for risk-neutral investors," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Goenka, Aditya, 2003. "Informed trading and the 'leakage' of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 360-377, April.
    9. Christopher Chambers & Paul Healy, 2012. "Updating toward the signal," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(3), pages 765-786, August.
    10. Peck, James, 2014. "A battle of informed traders and the market game foundations for rational expectations equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 153-173.
    11. Peck, James, 2003. "Large market games with demand uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 283-299, April.
    12. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2007. "The possibility of informationally efficient markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 467-483, March.
    13. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthew O. Jackson & James Peck, 1993. "Costly Information Acquisition," Discussion Papers 1087, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    2. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market I: rationality tests," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 401-420, September.
    3. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    4. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, "undated". "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    5. Franklin Allen & Gary B. Gorton, "undated". "Rational Finite Bubbles," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 41-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    6. Crockett, Jean A., 1998. "Rational expectations, inflation and the nominal interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 349-363.
    7. Buckley, Winston S. & Brown, Garfield O. & Marshall, Mario, 2012. "A mispricing model of stocks under asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 584-592.
    8. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    9. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1827, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    11. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bond, Derek & Gallagher, Emer & Ramsey, Elaine, 2012. "A preliminary investigation of northern Ireland's housing market dynamics," MPRA Paper 39806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Matteo Formenti, 2014. "Can Market Risk Perception Drive Inefficient Prices? Theory and Evidence," Papers 1409.4890, arXiv.org.
    14. Bayona, Anna & Manzano, Carolina, 2024. "Competition in schedules with cursed traders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    15. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    16. Kin-Boon Tang & Shao-Jye Wong & Shih-Kuei Lin & Szu-Lang Liao, 2020. "Excess volatility and market efficiency in government bond markets: the ASEAN-5 context," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 154-165, March.
    17. Alexander Teytelboym & Shengwu Li & Scott Duke Kominers & Mohammad Akbarpour & Piotr Dworczak, 2021. "Discovering Auctions: Contributions of Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(3), pages 709-750, July.
    18. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1995. "A welfare comparison of intermediaries and financial markets in Germany and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 179-209, February.
    19. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2636, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2002.
    20. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    market game; rational expectations; excess volatility; information acquisition; efficient markets hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:9711004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask EconWPA to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.