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Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?

  • Riekhof, Hans-Christian
  • Riekhof, Marie-Catherine
  • Brinkhoff, Stefan
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    Die möglichst präzise und vor allem zutreffende Vorhersage unsicherer zukünftiger Ereignisse ist eine permanente Herausforderung für Unternehmen. Prognosemärkte adressieren diese Aufgabe, indem sie relevante Informationen aufdecken, bewerten und aggregieren. Mit diesem Bericht leisten wir einen Beitrag zur Bewertung der Leistungsfähigkeit von Prognosemärkten und tragen zusammen, wo potentielle Schwierigkeiten liegen und inwiefern dafür bereits Lösungsansätze vorhanden sind. Es hat sich gezeigt, dass ein webbasiertes System mit einem virtuellen Aktienmarkt über den Preismechanismus effizient individuelle Urteile aggregieren kann und sich durch vergleichsweise niedrige Transaktionskosten und hohe Skalierbarkeit in Bezug auf die Anzahl möglicher Teilnehmer auszeichnet. Die operative Implementierung kann durch internes Marketing bereits vor dem Launch, durch die richtige Sprache, durch eine kontinuierliche Kontrolle des Anreizsystems und durch eine klare Unterstützung vom Topmanagement unterstützt werden. Erfahrungen der Wirtschaft zeigen die bisher noch schwierige Realisierung langfristiger Prognosen über Predictive Markets, da das hierfür optimale Anreizschema noch nicht ausreichend erforscht ist. Außerdem sind weitere empirische Untersuchungen notwendig, um bessere Aussagen über den Umgang mit spekulativen Blasen, über die ideale Anzahl von parallel handelbaren Aktien und über die Kalibrierung des Prognosehorizonts treffen zu können.

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    Paper provided by PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen in its series PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers with number 2012/07.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:pfhrps:201207
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.pfh.de/en/

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    1. Caitlin Hall, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Issues and Applications," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(1), pages 27-58, May.
    2. Koleman Strumpf & Paul Rhode, 2006. "Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data," Natural Field Experiments 00325, The Field Experiments Website.
    3. Kenneth Oliven & Thomas A. Rietz, 2004. "Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 336-351, March.
    4. Plott, Charles R. & Sunder, Shyam., . "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 331, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    5. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robin Hanson, 2009. "On Market Maker Functions," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 61-63, April.
    7. James Peck & Matthew O. Jackson, 1999. "Asymmetric information in a competitive market game: Reexamining the implications of rational expectations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 603-628.
    8. Georgios Tziralis & Ilias Tatsiopoulos, 2007. "Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 75-91, February.
    9. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Schäfers, Tobias & Eiben, Immo, 2009. "Behavioral Targeting: Ein effizienter Einsatz des Online-Werbebudgets?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2009/06, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    10. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
    11. repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Adam Siegel, 2009. "Inkling: One Prediction Market Platform Provider's Experience," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 65-85, April.
    13. Brian Spears & Christina LaComb & John Interrante & Janet Barnett & Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009. "Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 17-39, April.
    14. Gerrit Kamp & Peter Koen, 2009. "Improving the Idea Screening Process within Organizations using Prediction Markets: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 39-64, August.
    15. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
    16. Robin Hanson, 2007. "Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, February.
    17. David Rajakovich & Vladimir Vladimirov, 2009. "Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 78-106, August.
    18. Pomfret, Richard, 2008. "Turkmenistan after Turkmenbashi," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2008/03, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
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