IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/pfhrps/201207.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?

Author

Listed:
  • Riekhof, Hans-Christian
  • Riekhof, Marie-Catherine
  • Brinkhoff, Stefan

Abstract

Die möglichst präzise und vor allem zutreffende Vorhersage unsicherer zukünftiger Ereignisse ist eine permanente Herausforderung für Unternehmen. Prognosemärkte adressieren diese Aufgabe, indem sie relevante Informationen aufdecken, bewerten und aggregieren. Mit diesem Bericht leisten wir einen Beitrag zur Bewertung der Leistungsfähigkeit von Prognosemärkten und tragen zusammen, wo potentielle Schwierigkeiten liegen und inwiefern dafür bereits Lösungsansätze vorhanden sind. Es hat sich gezeigt, dass ein webbasiertes System mit einem virtuellen Aktienmarkt über den Preismechanismus effizient individuelle Urteile aggregieren kann und sich durch vergleichsweise niedrige Transaktionskosten und hohe Skalierbarkeit in Bezug auf die Anzahl möglicher Teilnehmer auszeichnet. Die operative Implementierung kann durch internes Marketing bereits vor dem Launch, durch die richtige Sprache, durch eine kontinuierliche Kontrolle des Anreizsystems und durch eine klare Unterstützung vom Topmanagement unterstützt werden. Erfahrungen der Wirtschaft zeigen die bisher noch schwierige Realisierung langfristiger Prognosen über Predictive Markets, da das hierfür optimale Anreizschema noch nicht ausreichend erforscht ist. Außerdem sind weitere empirische Untersuchungen notwendig, um bessere Aussagen über den Umgang mit spekulativen Blasen, über die ideale Anzahl von parallel handelbaren Aktien und über die Kalibrierung des Prognosehorizonts treffen zu können.

Suggested Citation

  • Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:pfhrps:201207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/58065/1/715368133.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Peck & Matthew O. Jackson, 1999. "Asymmetric information in a competitive market game: Reexamining the implications of rational expectations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 13(3), pages 603-628.
    2. David Rajakovich & Vladimir Vladimirov, 2009. "Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 78-106, August.
    3. Melnykovska, Inna & Schweickert, Rainer, 2009. "Analyzing bottlenecks for institutional development in Central Asia: Is it oil, aid, or geography?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2009/02, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    4. Gerrit Kamp & Peter Koen, 2009. "Improving the Idea Screening Process within Organizations using Prediction Markets: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 39-64, August.
    5. Martin Waitz & Andreas Mild, 2009. "Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets - A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(3), pages 49-62, December.
    6. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    7. Caitlin Hall, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Issues and Applications," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(1), pages 27-58, May.
    8. Paul Rhode & Koleman Strumpf, 2006. "Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data," Natural Field Experiments 00325, The Field Experiments Website.
    9. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1982. "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 663-698, August.
    10. Ahrens, Joachim, 2009. "The politico-institutional foundation of economic transition in Central Asia: Lessons from China," Discourses in Social Market Economy 2009-12, OrdnungsPolitisches Portal (OPO).
    11. Kenneth Oliven & Thomas A. Rietz, 2004. "Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 336-351, March.
    12. Harris, Lawrence & Hasbrouck, Joel, 1996. "Market vs. Limit Orders: The SuperDOT Evidence on Order Submission Strategy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 213-231, June.
    13. Serena Guarnaschelli & Anthony M. Kwasnica & Charles R. Plott, 2003. "Information Aggregation in Double Auctions: Rational Expectations and the Winner's Curse," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 63-77, January.
    14. repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Adam Siegel, 2009. "Inkling: One Prediction Market Platform Provider's Experience," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 65-85, April.
    16. Brian Spears & Christina LaComb & John Interrante & Janet Barnett & Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009. "Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 17-39, April.
    17. Robin Hanson, 2009. "On Market Maker Functions," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 61-63, April.
    18. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
    19. Robin Hanson, 2003. "Combinatorial Information Market Design," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 107-119, January.
    20. Pomfret, Richard, 2008. "Turkmenistan after Turkmenbashi," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2008/03, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    21. Ahrens, Joachim, 2009. "The politico-institutional foundation of economic transition in Central Asia: Lessons from China," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2009/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    22. Robin Hanson, 2007. "Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, February.
    23. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Schäfers, Tobias & Eiben, Immo, 2009. "Behavioral Targeting: Ein effizienter Einsatz des Online-Werbebudgets?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2009/06, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    24. Georgios Tziralis & Ilias Tatsiopoulos, 2007. "Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 75-91, February.
    25. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2014. "Absatzprognosen: Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme der unternehmerischen Praxis," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2014/04, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    2. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.
    3. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 657-687, Elsevier.
    4. Buckley, Patrick, 2016. "Harnessing the wisdom of crowds: Decision spaces for prediction markets," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 85-94.
    5. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Spyros Galanis & Christos A Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2024. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3423-3467.
    7. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Wacker, Philipp, 2012. "Pricing-Prozesse für Komponentenhersteller im Maschinen- und Anlagenbau," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/02, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    8. Kortleben, Hanno & Vollmar, Bernhard H., 2012. "Crowdinvesting: Eine Alternative in der Gründungsfinanzierung?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/06, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    9. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Wurr, Frederik, 2013. "Steigerung der Wertschöpfung durch intelligentes Pricing: Eine empirische Untersuchung," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2013/02, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    10. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2014. "Absatzprognosen: Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme der unternehmerischen Praxis," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2014/04, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    11. Fuchs, Tobias & Zilling, Manfred Peter & Schüle, Hubert, 2012. "Analyse des Spillover-Effekts in Suchketten anhand des Google Conversion Tracking," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/08, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    12. Ahrens, Joachim & Stark, Manuel, 2012. "Unabhängige Organisationen in autoritären Regimes: Widerspruch in sich oder effektives Instrument von Developmental States?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/09, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    13. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
    14. Wolters, Alexander, 2013. "Islamic finance in the states of Central Asia: Strategies, institutions, first experiences," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2013/01, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    15. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Werner, Franziska, 2010. "Pricing-Prozesse bei Herstellern von Fast Moving Consumer Goods," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2010/01, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    16. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Lohaus, Benedikt, 2009. "Wertschöpfende Pricing-Prozesse: Eine empirische Untersuchung der Pricing-Praxis," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2009/08, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    17. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
    18. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Jacobi, Teresa, 2016. "Content-Marketing-Strategien in der Unternehmenspraxis: Eine empirische Analyse," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2016/01, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    19. Veiga, Helena & Vorsatz, Marc, 2008. "Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws084110, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    20. Junge, Hendrik & Vollmar, Bernhard, 2021. "Autokauf der Zukunft: Eine Darstellung und Analyse des gegenwärtigen und zukünftigen Kaufentscheidungsprozesses von Automobilen unter Berücksichtigung aktueller Trends in der Automobilindustrie," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2021/001, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:pfhrps:201207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.pfh.de/en/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.