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Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?

Author

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  • Riekhof, Hans-Christian
  • Riekhof, Marie-Catherine
  • Brinkhoff, Stefan

Abstract

Die möglichst präzise und vor allem zutreffende Vorhersage unsicherer zukünftiger Ereignisse ist eine permanente Herausforderung für Unternehmen. Prognosemärkte adressieren diese Aufgabe, indem sie relevante Informationen aufdecken, bewerten und aggregieren. Mit diesem Bericht leisten wir einen Beitrag zur Bewertung der Leistungsfähigkeit von Prognosemärkten und tragen zusammen, wo potentielle Schwierigkeiten liegen und inwiefern dafür bereits Lösungsansätze vorhanden sind. Es hat sich gezeigt, dass ein webbasiertes System mit einem virtuellen Aktienmarkt über den Preismechanismus effizient individuelle Urteile aggregieren kann und sich durch vergleichsweise niedrige Transaktionskosten und hohe Skalierbarkeit in Bezug auf die Anzahl möglicher Teilnehmer auszeichnet. Die operative Implementierung kann durch internes Marketing bereits vor dem Launch, durch die richtige Sprache, durch eine kontinuierliche Kontrolle des Anreizsystems und durch eine klare Unterstützung vom Topmanagement unterstützt werden. Erfahrungen der Wirtschaft zeigen die bisher noch schwierige Realisierung langfristiger Prognosen über Predictive Markets, da das hierfür optimale Anreizschema noch nicht ausreichend erforscht ist. Außerdem sind weitere empirische Untersuchungen notwendig, um bessere Aussagen über den Umgang mit spekulativen Blasen, über die ideale Anzahl von parallel handelbaren Aktien und über die Kalibrierung des Prognosehorizonts treffen zu können.

Suggested Citation

  • Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:pfhrps:201207
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    1. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2014. "Absatzprognosen: Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme der unternehmerischen Praxis," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2014/04, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.

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