The Period Of Financial Distress In Speculative Markets: Interacting Heterogeneous Agents And Financial Constraints
We investigate how stochastic asset price dynamics with herding and financial constraints explains the presence of a period of financial distress (PFD) following the peak and preceding the crash of a bubble [Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis , 4th ed. (New York: Wiley, 2000, Appendix B)] as common among most major historical speculative bubbles. Simulations show that the PFD is due to (1) agents' wealth distribution dynamics and (2) positive and sufficiently high transaction costs generating losses for a significant mass of the agents' distribution after the peak of the bubble. The use of transaction costs to get the result is only a modeling tool. Many other mechanisms—able to generate losses for a large mass of the agents' distribution in periods in which financial constraints bind—can produce the same result. The paper also shows how the PFD is affected by a variation of the sensitivity of price to the excess demand and by the switching strategy.
Volume (Year): 15 (2011)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK|
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_MDY
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carl Chiarella & Mauro Gallegati & Roberto Leombruni & Antonio Palestrini, 2003.
"Asset Price Dynamics among Heterogeneous Interacting Agents,"
Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 213-223, October.
- Carl Chiarella & Mauro Gallegati & Roberto Leombruni & Antonio Palestrini, 2002. "Asset Price Dynamics among Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 222, Society for Computational Economics.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.
"Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
27693805, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kaizoji, Taisei, 2000.
"Speculative bubbles and crashes in stock markets: an interacting-agent model of speculative activity,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 493-506.
- Taisei Kaizoji, 2000. "Speculative bubbles and crashes in stock market: an interacting-agent model of speculative activity," Papers cond-mat/0010263, arXiv.org.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model,"
Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
- Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
- W. A. Brock, 1993.
"Pathways to Randomness in the Economy: Emergent Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economics and Finance,"
93-02-006, Santa Fe Institute.
- William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
- Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988.
"Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep,"
m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- Bischi, Gian-Italo & Gallegati, Mauro & Gardini, Laura & Leombruni, Roberto & Palestrini, Antonio, 2006. "Herd Behavior And Nonfundamental Asset Price Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(04), pages 502-528, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:15:y:2011:i:01:p:60-79_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.