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The Period Of Financial Distress In Speculative Markets: Interacting Heterogeneous Agents And Financial Constraints

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  • Gallegati, Mauro
  • Palestrini, Antonio
  • Rosser, J. Barkley

Abstract

We investigate how stochastic asset price dynamics with herding and financial constraints explains the presence of a period of financial distress (PFD) following the peak and preceding the crash of a bubble [Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis, 4th ed. (New York: Wiley, 2000, Appendix B)] as common among most major historical speculative bubbles. Simulations show that the PFD is due to (1) agents' wealth distribution dynamics and (2) positive and sufficiently high transaction costs generating losses for a significant mass of the agents' distribution after the peak of the bubble. The use of transaction costs to get the result is only a modeling tool. Many other mechanisms—able to generate losses for a large mass of the agents' distribution in periods in which financial constraints bind—can produce the same result. The paper also shows how the PFD is affected by a variation of the sensitivity of price to the excess demand and by the switching strategy.

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  • Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio & Rosser, J. Barkley, 2011. "The Period Of Financial Distress In Speculative Markets: Interacting Heterogeneous Agents And Financial Constraints," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 60-79, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:15:y:2011:i:01:p:60-79_09
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    1. Li, Xi Hao, 2013. "Standardization for Agent-based Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 47396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli & Fabio Tramontana, 2021. "Uncertainty about fundamental, pessimistic and overconfident traders: a piecewise-linear maps approach," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 707-726, December.
    3. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. & Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2016. "A Raging Bull or a Long-term Speculative Bubble? The Puzzling Case of the Karachi Stock Exchange," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 79-93.
    4. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010. "Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
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    6. Ilker Arslan & Eugenio Caverzasi & Mauro Gallegati & Alper Duman, 2016. "Long Term Impacts of Bank Behavior on Financial Stability. an Agent Based Modeling Approach," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 19(1), pages 1-11.
    7. Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.
    8. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Estimating behavioural heterogeneity under regime switching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 446-460.
    9. Hüsler, A. & Sornette, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: Evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 304-316.
    10. Gomes, Orlando, 2012. "Attentiveness cycles: Synchronized behavior and aggregate fluctuations," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(3), October.
    11. J. Rosser & Marina Rosser & Mauro Gallegati, 2012. "A Minsky-Kindleberger Perspective on the Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 449-458.
    12. Yosra Mefteh Rekik & Younes Boujelbene, 2015. "Price Dynamics and Market Volatility: Behavioral Heterogeneity under Switching Trading Strategies on Artificial Financial Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 33-43, April.
    13. Rosser Jr., J. Barkley, 2007. "The rise and fall of catastrophe theory applications in economics: Was the baby thrown out with the bathwater?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3255-3280, October.
    14. Michael S. Harr'e, 2018. "Multi-agent Economics and the Emergence of Critical Markets," Papers 1809.01332, arXiv.org.
    15. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Financial crises and regime-dependent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 445-461.
    16. Brianzoni, Serena & Campisi, Giovanni, 2020. "Dynamical analysis of a financial market with fundamentalists, chartists, and imitators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

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