IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v130y2020ics0960077919303807.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamical analysis of a financial market with fundamentalists, chartists, and imitators

Author

Listed:
  • Brianzoni, Serena
  • Campisi, Giovanni

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to understand the price dynamics generated by the interaction of traders relying on heterogeneous expectations in an asset pricing model. In the present work we propose a financial market populated by three types of agents – fundamentalists, chartists and imitators. The latter submit buying/selling orders according to different trading rules using a 2D Piecewise Linear (PWL) discontinuous map. Our contribution to the existing financial literature is twofold. First, we perform an analytical study of the model involving a 2D PWL discontinuous map, where mainly numerical results are provided by researchers, besides few exceptions. In particular, we investigate the bifurcations showed by the model and the large variety of dynamical behavior produced. Finally, we provide numerical simulations in order to highlight the interaction between traders with heterogeneous expectations that can lead to intricate bull and bear price dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Brianzoni, Serena & Campisi, Giovanni, 2020. "Dynamical analysis of a financial market with fundamentalists, chartists, and imitators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:130:y:2020:i:c:s0960077919303807
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2019.109434
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077919303807
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2019.109434?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    2. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations, exchange rate dynamics and predictability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 111-128, September.
    5. Iryna Sushko & Laura Gardini, 2006. "Center Bifurcation for a Two-Dimensional Piecewise Linear Map," Springer Books, in: Tönu Puu & Iryna Sushko (ed.), Business Cycle Dynamics, chapter 2, pages 49-78, Springer.
    6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    7. Sushko, Iryna & Agliari, Anna & Gardini, Laura, 2006. "Bifurcation structure of parameter plane for a family of unimodal piecewise smooth maps: Border-collision bifurcation curves," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 756-770.
    8. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2004. "Multiasset Market Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(5), pages 596-616, November.
    9. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    11. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan & Chia, Wai-Mun, 2010. "Financial crises and interacting heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1105-1122, June.
    12. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
    13. Naimzada, Ahmad K. & Ricchiuti, Giorgio, 2009. "Dynamic effects of increasing heterogeneity in financial markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1764-1772.
    14. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978, October.
    15. Fabio Tramontana & Laura Gardini & Frank Westerhoff, 2011. "Heterogeneous Speculators and Asset Price Dynamics: Further Results from a One-Dimensional Discontinuous Piecewise-Linear Map," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 329-347, October.
    16. Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio & Rosser, J. Barkley, 2011. "The Period Of Financial Distress In Speculative Markets: Interacting Heterogeneous Agents And Financial Constraints," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 60-79, February.
    17. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
    18. Sushko, Iryna & Tramontana, Fabio & Westerhoff, Frank & Avrutin, Viktor, 2015. "Symmetry breaking in a bull and bear financial market model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 57-72.
    19. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Financial crises and regime-dependent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 445-461.
    20. Agliari, Anna & Naimzada, Ahmad & Pecora, Nicolò, 2018. "Boom-bust dynamics in a stock market participation model with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 458-468.
    21. Jan Polach & Jiri Kukacka, 2019. "Prospect Theory in the Heterogeneous Agent Model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(1), pages 147-174, March.
    22. Fabio Tramontana, 2013. "The role of cognitively biased imitators in a small scale agent-based financial market," DEM Working Papers Series 029, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    23. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Estimating behavioural heterogeneity under regime switching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 446-460.
    24. Gardini, Laura & Tramontana, Fabio, 2011. "Border collision bifurcation curves and their classification in a family of 1D discontinuous maps," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 248-259.
    25. Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2017. "Adaptive expectations versus rational expectations: Evidence from the lab," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 988-1006.
    26. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2005. "The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-52.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli & Fabio Tramontana, 2021. "Uncertainty about fundamental, pessimistic and overconfident traders: a piecewise-linear maps approach," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 707-726, December.
    2. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli & Fabio Tramontana, 2021. "Uncertainty about fundamental and pessimistic traders: a piecewise-linear maps approach," Department of Economics 0186, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli, 2020. "Fundamentalists heterogeneity and the role of the sentiment indicator," Department of Economics 0167, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli & Fabio Tramontana, 2021. "Uncertainty about fundamental, pessimistic and overconfident traders: a piecewise-linear maps approach," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 707-726, December.
    2. Tramontana, Fabio & Westerhoff, Frank & Gardini, Laura, 2013. "The bull and bear market model of Huang and Day: Some extensions and new results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2351-2370.
    3. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Financial crises and regime-dependent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 445-461.
    4. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Estimating behavioural heterogeneity under regime switching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 446-460.
    5. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2014. "Speculative behavior and the dynamics of interacting stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 262-288.
    6. Sushko, Iryna & Tramontana, Fabio & Westerhoff, Frank & Avrutin, Viktor, 2015. "Symmetry breaking in a bull and bear financial market model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 57-72.
    7. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli & Fabio Tramontana, 2021. "Uncertainty about fundamental and pessimistic traders: a piecewise-linear maps approach," Department of Economics 0186, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    8. Cafferata, Alessia & Tramontana, Fabio, 2019. "A financial market model with confirmation bias," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 252-259.
    9. Dieci, Roberto & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Interactions between stock, bond and housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-70.
    10. Jochen Jungeilges & Elena Maklakova & Tatyana Perevalova, 2022. "Stochastic sensitivity of bull and bear states," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 165-190, January.
    11. Jungeilges, Jochen & Maklakova, Elena & Perevalova, Tatyana, 2021. "Asset price dynamics in a “bull and bear market”," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 117-128.
    12. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "On the inherent instability of international financial markets: Natural nonlinear interactions between stock and foreign exchange markets," BERG Working Paper Series 79, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    13. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli, 2020. "Fundamentalists heterogeneity and the role of the sentiment indicator," Department of Economics 0167, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    14. Zhenxi Chen & Weihong Huang & Huanhuan Zheng, 2018. "Estimating heterogeneous agents behavior in a two-market financial system," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(3), pages 491-510, October.
    15. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Kai, 2012. "Heterogeneous beliefs and adaptive behaviour in a continuous-time asset price model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 973-987.
    16. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2013. "Time-varying beta: a boundedly rational equilibrium approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 609-639, July.
    17. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    18. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bao, Te & Tuinstra, Jan, 2016. "Microfoundations for switching behavior in heterogeneous agent models: An experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 74-99.
    19. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion: Empirical evidence and theoretical explanations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 34-53.
    20. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:130:y:2020:i:c:s0960077919303807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.