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Asset Price Dynamics among Heterogeneous Interacting Agents

  • Carl Chiarella
  • Mauro Gallegati
  • Roberto Leombruni
  • Antonio Palestrini

In this paper, we investigate the presence of rationalherding on asset price dynamics during the intra-day trading withheterogeneous interacting agents, whose information set is notcomplete. In the model, individual probability measures offinancial investment strategies are defined using statisticalmechanics concepts. In addition, there is a learning processtoward the best strategy, implemented as a geneticalgorithm. Simulations show that imitative behavior can be arational strategy, since it allows an investor to gain excessreturns on an asset by exploiting information regarding pricedynamics not strictly contained in the fundamental solution. Herdbehavior is rational in the sense that it produces profits at theexpense of increasing the complexity of the system. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 with number 222.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf2:222
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  1. Gilles Teyssière & Alan Kirman, 2001. "Microeconomic Models for Long-Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  2. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  3. W. Brian Arthur, 1992. "On Learning and Adaptation in the Economy," Working Papers 854, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Research Paper Series 56, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  7. Routledge, Bryan R, 1999. "Adaptive Learning in Financial Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1165-1202.
  8. Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-11, May.
  9. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
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