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Emerging Markets and Stock Market Bubbles: Nonlinear Speculation?

Author

Listed:
  • Ehsan Ahmed
  • J. Barkley Rosser Jr.
  • Jamshed Y. Uppal

Abstract

Daily returns of stock markets in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, South America, and Eastern Europe from the early 1990s through 2006 are analyzed for the possible presence of nonlinear speculative bubbles. The absence of these is tested for by studying residuals of vector autoregressive-based fundamentals, using the Hamilton regimeswitching model and the rescaled range analysis of Hurst. For the first test, absence of bubbles is rejected for twenty-four countries (except Mexico, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan); for the second test, it is rejected for twenty-six countries (except Malaysia). BDS testing on these residuals after autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effects are removed fails to reject further nonlinearity (except for Israel). Policy issues are discussed, noting that what is appropriate varies from country to country and time period to time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehsan Ahmed & J. Barkley Rosser Jr. & Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2010. "Emerging Markets and Stock Market Bubbles: Nonlinear Speculation?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 23-40, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:46:y:2010:i:4:p:23-40
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    1. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:132-142 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi & Kui-Wai Li & Junji Shimada, 2014. "Rational expectation bubbles: evidence from Hong Kong's sub-indices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(20), pages 2429-2440, July.
    3. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Rosser & Jamshed Uppal, 2014. "Are there nonlinear speculative bubbles in commodities prices?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 415-438.

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