The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets
We use the revised estimates of U.S. GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess the time-series properties of U.S. output per capita over the past century. We reject at conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the alternative that output is a stationary autoregressive process about a linear deterministic trend. The difference between the lack of persistence of output shocks either before WWII or over the entire century, on the one hand, and the strong signs of persistence of output shocks found by Campbell and Mankiw (1987) and by Nelson and Plosser (1982) for more recent periods is striking. It suggests to us a Keynesian interpretation of the large unit root in post-WWII U.S. output: perhaps post-WWII output shocks appear persistent because automatic stabilizers and other demand-management policies have substantially damped the transitory fluctuations that made up the pre-WWH Bums-Mitchell business cycle.
|Date of creation:||Sep 1988|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of Business, Vol. 64, No. 1, January 1991, pp.1-20.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pagano, Marco, 1986.
"Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Pagano, 1989. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 269-287.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Kyle, A.S., 1988.
"Smart Money, Noise Trading And Stock Price Behavior,"
95, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
- John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1988. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behavior," NBER Technical Working Papers 0071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kyle, Albert & Campbell, John, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Scholarly Articles 3208217, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1984.
"Stock Prices and Social Dynamics,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, "undated".
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers
_124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2715. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.