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Do Noise Traders Influence Stock Prices

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  • Kelly, M.

Abstract

This paper tests a smart money-noise trader model directly by seeing how well its predictions match the behavior of actual investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, M., 1996. "Do Noise Traders Influence Stock Prices," Papers 96/5, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:dublec:96/5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Zeckhauser & Jayendu Patel & Darryll Hendricks, 1991. "Nonrational Actors and Financial Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    4. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    5. Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    7. Kelly, Morgan, 1997. "Do Noise Traders Influence Stock Prices?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 351-363, August.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    9. Daniel R. Feenberg & James M. Poterba, 1993. "Income Inequality and the Incomes of Very High-Income Taxpayers: Evidence from Tax Returns," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 7, pages 145-177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    11. Russell, Thomas & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "The Relevance of Quasi Rationality in Competitive Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1071-1082, December.
    12. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    13. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    14. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    19. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    20. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    21. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cizek, P., 2007. "General Trimmed Estimation : Robust Approach to Nonlinear and Limited Dependent Variable Models (Replaces DP 2007-1)," Other publications TiSEM eeccf622-dd18-41d4-a2f9-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Kelly, Morgan, 1997. "Do Noise Traders Influence Stock Prices?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 351-363, August.
    3. Čížek, Pavel, 2008. "General Trimmed Estimation: Robust Approach To Nonlinear And Limited Dependent Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1500-1529, December.
    4. Chen, Zhenhua & Liu, Zhenya & Teka, Hanen & Zhang, Yifan, 2022. "Smart money in China's A-share market: Evidence from big data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Cizek, P., 2004. "Asymptotics of Least Trimmed Squares Regression," Discussion Paper 2004-72, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    7. Bohl, Martin T. & Schuppli, Michael & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Stock return seasonalities and investor structure: Evidence from China's B-share markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 190-201, March.
    8. Kling, Gerhard & Gao, Lei, 2008. "Chinese institutional investors' sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 374-387, October.
    9. Al-Nasseri, Alya & Menla Ali, Faek & Tucker, Allan, 2021. "Investor sentiment and the dispersion of stock returns: Evidence based on the social network of investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Bohl, Martin T. & Schuppli, Michael & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Stock return seasonalities and investor structure: Evidence from China's B-share markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 190-201, March.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pavlo Blavatskyy & Ganna Pogrebna, 2010. "Reevaluating evidence on myopic loss aversion: aggregate patterns versus individual choices," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 159-171, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FINANCIAL MARKET; INVESTMENTS;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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