IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v26y2015icp1-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An examination of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment effect on the Turkish stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Sayim, Mustafa
  • Rahman, Hamid

Abstract

This study examines the effect of rational and irrational components of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment on Istanbul Stock Market (ISE) return and volatility. The results show that there is a significant spillover effect of U.S. investor sentiment on stock return and volatility of ISE. A breakdown of sentiment by the type of investor shows that the impact of institutional sentiment is greater than that of individual sentiment. A breakdown of sentiment by rationality shows that the effect of rational sentiment on ISE return is faster though not necessarily greater than that of irrational sentiment. The conclusion from these results is that the effect of U.S. investor sentiment is systemic and cannot be diversified away. U.S. investor sentiment, therefore, constitutes a priced risk factor and must be accounted for accordingly in international asset pricing models. The findings also provide some evidence of a negative relationship between U.S. investor sentiment and ISE return volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Sayim, Mustafa & Rahman, Hamid, 2015. "An examination of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment effect on the Turkish stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:26:y:2015:i:c:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2015.01.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1044028315000022
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.gfj.2015.01.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    2. Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 1996. "Time-Varying Expected Small Firm Returns and Closed-End Fund Discounts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 845-887.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    5. John Lintner, 1965. "Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 587-615, December.
    6. Li, Qi & Yang, Jian & Hsiao, Cheng & Chang, Young-Jae, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and volatility in international stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 650-665, December.
    7. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    8. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    9. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Busse, Jeffrey A, 1998. "Do Investors Care about Sentiment?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 477-500, October.
    10. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
    11. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    12. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    13. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    14. Lewellen, Wilbur G & Lease, Ronald C & Schlarbaum, Gary G, 1977. "Patterns of Investment Strategy and Behavior among Individual Investors," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(3), pages 296-333, July.
    15. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    16. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    17. Shiller, Robert J & Kon-Ya, Fumiko & Tsutsui, Yoshiro, 1996. "Why Did the Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 156-164, February.
    18. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    19. Becker, Kent G. & Finnerty, Joseph E. & Friedman, Joseph, 1995. "Economic news and equity market linkages between the U.S. and U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1191-1210, October.
    20. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    22. Richard W. Sias & Laura T. Starks & Seha M. Tiniç, 2001. "Is Noise Trader Risk Priced?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 311-329, September.
    23. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
    24. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    25. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    26. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 2006. "Feedback and the success of irrational investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 311-338, August.
    27. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    28. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    29. Leonid Kogan & Stephen A. Ross & Jiang Wang & Mark M. Westerfield, 2006. "The Price Impact and Survival of Irrational Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 195-229, February.
    30. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    31. Robert B. Litterman & Thomas M. Supel, 1983. "Using vector autoregressions to measure the uncertainty in Minnesota's revenue forecasts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 7(Spr).
    32. Ratanapakorn, Orawan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Interrelationships among regional stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 91-108.
    33. Meric, Gulser & Leal, Ricardo P. C. & Ratner, Mitchell & Meric, Ilhan, 2001. "Co-movements of U.S. and Latin American equity markets before and after the 1987 crash," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 219-235.
    34. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    35. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    36. Jon Wongswan, 2006. "Transmission of Information across International Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1157-1189.
    37. Roy H. Webb, 1999. "Two approaches to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 23-40.
    38. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    39. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    40. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 632-648, November.
    41. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    42. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    43. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    44. Rahul Verma & Hasan Baklaci & Gokce Soydemir, 2008. "The impact of rational and irrational sentiments of individual and institutional investors on DJIA and S&P500 index returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(16), pages 1303-1317.
    45. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1994. "Behavioral Capital Asset Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 323-349, September.
    46. Whitelaw, Robert F, 2000. "Stock Market Risk and Return: An Equilibrium Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 521-547.
    47. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Jeffrey A. Busse, 1998. "Do Investors Care About Sentiment?," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-028, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    48. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    49. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    50. Sias, Richard W & Starks, Laura T & Tinic, Seha M, 2001. "Is Noise Trader Risk Priced?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 311-329, Fall.
    51. Black, Fischer, 1986. "Noise," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 529-543, July.
    52. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    53. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    54. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    55. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frijns, Bart & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2017. "Excess stock return comovements and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-87.
    2. Chen Weiguo & Zhou Shufen & Zhang Yin & Sun Yi, 2021. "A Study of Multi-Scale Relationship Between Investor Sentiment and Stock Index Fluctuation Based on the Analysis of BEMD Spillover Index," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 399-420, August.
    3. Rama Krishna Yelamanchili, 2019. "Impact of Consumer Sentiment on Defensive and Aggressive Stock Returns: Indian Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 109-114.
    4. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.
    5. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2017. "Analysts and sentiment: A causality study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 315-327.
    6. Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury, 2023. "Spillover of Sentiments Between the GCC Stock Markets," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(6), pages 1434-1453, December.
    7. Daniel Perez-Liston & Daniel Huerta-Sanchez & Juan Gutierrez, 2018. "Do Domestic Sentiment and the Spillover of US Investor Sentiment Impact Mexican Stock Market Returns?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 185-212, August.
    8. Yue-Jun Zhang & Shu-Hui Li, 2019. "The impact of investor sentiment on crude oil market risks: evidence from the wavelet approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 1357-1371, August.
    9. Hilary Tinotenda Muguto & Lorraine Rupande & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2019. "Investor sentiment and foreign financial flows: Evidence from South Africa," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 473-498.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Verma, Rahul & Soydemir, Gökçe, 2009. "The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1129-1145, August.
    2. Pablo Calafiore & Gökçe Soydemir & Rahul Verma, 2010. "The Impact of Business and Consumer Sentiment on Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Brazil," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Verma, Rahul & Verma, Priti, 2008. "Are survey forecasts of individual and institutional investor sentiments rational?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1139-1155, December.
    4. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin & Dirk Nitzsche, 2016. "International Sentiment Spillovers in Equity Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 332-359, October.
    5. Sidika Gulfem Bayram, 2017. "Rational–Irrational Investor Sentiments and Emerging Stock Market Returns: A Comparison from Turkey," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(3), pages 219-245, December.
    6. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    7. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
    8. Wenjie Ding & Khelifa Mazouz & Qingwei Wang, 2019. "Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns: new theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-525, August.
    9. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bonsu, Christiana Osei & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The effects of public sentiments and feelings on stock market behavior: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 443-472.
    12. Muhammad Zia Ur Rehman & Zain ul Abidin & Faisal Rizwan & Zaheer Abbas & Sajjad Ahmad Baig, 2017. "How investor sentiments spillover from developed countries to developing countries?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1309096-130, January.
    13. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    14. Liston, Daniel Perez, 2016. "Sin stock returns and investor sentiment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 63-70.
    15. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    16. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin, 2013. "An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 909-937, October.
    17. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    18. Kumari, Jyoti, 2019. "Investor sentiment and stock market liquidity: Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 166-180.
    19. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
    20. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; ISE; VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:26:y:2015:i:c:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.