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Feedback and the success of irrational investors

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  • Hirshleifer, David
  • Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar
  • Titman, Sheridan

Abstract

We provide a model in which irrational investors trade based upon considerations that have no inherent connection to fundamentals. However, trading activity affects market prices, and because of feedback from security prices to cash flows, the irrational trades influence underlying cash flows. As a result, irrational investors can, in some situations, earn positive expected profits. These expected profits are not market compensation for bearing risk, and can exceed the expected profits of rational informed investors. Although the trading of irrational investors cause prices to deviate from fundamental values, stock prices follow a random walk.
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  • Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 2006. "Feedback and the success of irrational investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 311-338, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:81:y:2006:i:2:p:311-338
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    Cited by:

    1. Banerjee, Snehal & Green, Brett, 2015. "Signal or noise? Uncertainty and learning about whether other traders are informed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 398-423.
    2. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, pages 1935-1950.
    3. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:816-831 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bade, Marco & Hirth, Hans, 2016. "Liquidity cost vs. real investment efficiency," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 70-90.
    5. Leonid Kogan & Stephen A. Ross & Jiang Wang & Mark M. Westerfield, 2006. "The Price Impact and Survival of Irrational Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 195-229, February.
    6. Benhabib, Jess & Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei, 2016. "Sentiments, financial markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 420-443.
    7. Hott, C., 2011. "Lending behavior and real estate prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2429-2442, September.
    8. Goldstein, Itay & Ozdenoren, Emre & Yuan, Kathy, 2013. "Trading frenzies and their impact on real investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 566-582.
    9. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G., 2009. "The impact of information signals on market prices when agents have non-linear trading rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 167-176, January.
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    13. Nyborg, Kjell G & Wang, Zexi, 2013. "Stock Liquidity and Corporate Cash Holdings," CEPR Discussion Papers 9535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    18. Leite, Tore, 2005. "Returns to sentiment investors in IPOs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 222-226, November.
    19. Guyot, Alexis & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2014. "Foreign shocks and international cost of equity destabilization. Evidence from the MENA region," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 101-122.
    20. M. Fern'andez-Mart'inez & M. A S'anchez-Granero & Mar'ia Jos'e Mu~noz Torrecillas & Bill McKelvey, 2016. "A comparison among some Hurst exponent approaches to predict nascent bubbles in $500$ company stocks," Papers 1601.04188, arXiv.org.
    21. Rachida Hennani, 2015. "Can the Lasota(1977)’s model compete with the Mackey-Glass(1977)’s model in nonlinear modelling of financial time series?," Working Papers 15-09, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jun 2015.
    22. Yipeng Yang & Allanus Tsoi, 2013. "Prospect Agents and the Feedback Effect on Price Fluctuations," Papers 1308.6759, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
    23. Leif Brandes & Katja Rost, 2009. "Media, Limited Attention and the Propensity of Individuals to Buy Stocks," Working Papers 0098, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised Sep 2009.
    24. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2009. "Optimal financial education," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    25. Bengtsson, Elias, 2013. "Shadow banking and financial stability: European money market funds in the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 579-594.

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