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Trading Frenzies and Their Impact on Real Investment

  • Goldstein, Itay
  • Ozdenoren, Emre
  • Yuan, Kathy

We study a model where a capital provider learns from the price of a firm’s security in deciding how much capital to provide for new investment. This feedback effect from the financial market to the investment decision gives rise to trading frenzies, where speculators all wish to trade like others, generating large shifts in prices and firms’ investments. Coordination among speculators is sometimes desirable for price informativeness and investment efficiency, but speculators’ incentives push in the opposite direction, so that they coordinate exactly when it is undesirable. We analyze the determinants of coordination among speculators and study policy measures that affect patterns of coordination to improve price informativeness and investment efficiency.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7652.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7652
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  1. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2004. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1353, CESifo Group Munich.
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  5. Vives, X., 1990. "How Fast Do Rational Agents Learn?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 135-90, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  6. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2005. "Central Bank Transparency and the Signal Value of Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2), pages 1-66.
  7. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 2004. "Feedback and the Success of Irrational Investors," Working Paper Series 2004-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  8. Manuel Amador & Pierre Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," 2008 Meeting Papers 390, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Yuanzhi Luo, 2005. "Do Insiders Learn from Outsiders? Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1951-1982, 08.
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  11. Itay Goldstein & Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan, 2011. "Learning and Complementarities in Speculative Attacks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 263-292.
  12. Dasgupta, Amil, 2007. "Coordination and delay in global games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 195-225, May.
  13. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  14. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2010. "Beauty Contests and "Irrational Exuberance": A Neoclassical Approach," Discussion Papers 1502, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  15. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-98, December.
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  17. Dow, James & Gorton, Gary, 1997. " Stock Market Efficiency and Economic Efficiency: Is There a Connection?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1087-1129, July.
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  28. Itay Goldstein & Alexander Guembel, 2008. "Manipulation and the Allocational Role of Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 133-164.
  29. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, 03.
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  33. Diego García & Günter Strobl, 2011. "Relative Wealth Concerns and Complementarities in Information Acquisition," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 169-207.
  34. Hayne E. Leland., 1990. "Insider Trading: Should It Be Prohibited?," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-195, University of California at Berkeley.
  35. Fulghieri, Paolo & Lukin, Dmitry, 2001. "Information production, dilution costs, and optimal security design," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 3-42, July.
  36. Amador, Manuel & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2006. "Learning from Private and Public Observation of Other's Actions," MPRA Paper 109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Michael J. Fishman & Kathleen M. Hagerty, 1992. "Insider Trading and the Efficiency of Stock Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 23(1), pages 106-122, Spring.
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