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Have Financial Markets Become More Informative?

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  • Jennie Bai
  • Thomas Philippon
  • Alexi Savov

Abstract

The finance industry has grown, financial markets have become more liquid, information technology has undergone a revolution. But have market prices become more informative? We derive a welfare-based measure of price informativeness: the predicted variation of future cash flows from current market prices. Since 1960, price informativeness has increased at longer horizons (three to five years). The increase is concentrated among firms with greater institutional ownership and share turnover, firms with traded options, and growth firms. Prices have also become a stronger predictor of investment and investment a stronger predictor of cash flows. These results suggest increased revelatory price efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennie Bai & Thomas Philippon & Alexi Savov, 2013. "Have Financial Markets Become More Informative?," NBER Working Papers 19728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19728 Note: AP CF EFG ME
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. All that financial innovation has not lead to more transparency
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2014-01-15 21:39:00

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    2. Joel M. David & Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Venky Venkateswaran, 2016. "Information, Misallocation, and Aggregate Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(2), pages 943-1005.
    3. Nicolae B. Gârleanu & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2015. "Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management," NBER Working Papers 21563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:eee:corfin:v:47:y:2017:i:c:p:236-252 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Thomas Philippon, 2015. "Has the US Finance Industry Become Less Efficient? On the Theory and Measurement of Financial Intermediation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1408-1438, April.
    6. Donaldson, Jason & Micheler, Eva, 2016. "Resaleable debt and systemic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Briana Chang & Harrison Hong, 2017. "Assignment of Stock Market Coverage," NBER Working Papers 23115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Calcagno, Riccardo & Heider, Florian, 2016. "Liquidity, Information Aggregation, and Market-Based Pay in an Efficient Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 11298, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Reto Cueni & Bruno S. Frey, 2014. "Forecasts and Reactivity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2014-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    10. Giampaolo Gabbi & Elisa Ticci, 2014. "Implications of financialisation for sustainability," Working papers wpaper47, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    11. Dugast, Jérôme & Foucault, Thierry, 2016. "Data Abundance and Asset Price Informativeness," CEPR Discussion Papers 11190, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Muhammad A. Cheema & Gilbert V. Nartea, 2017. "Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum Returns and Market Dynamics: Are Islamic Stocks Different?," Working Papers in Economics 17/14, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    13. Thomas Philippon, 2014. "Efficiency and Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Financial System," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S2), pages 107-120.
    14. Peter Koudijs, 2013. "The boats that did not sail: Asset Price Volatility and Market Efficiency in a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 18831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    16. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare
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    18. Peter Koudijs, 2013. "'Those Who Know Most': Insider Trading in 18th c. Amsterdam," NBER Working Papers 18845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Laura Veldkamp & Maryam Farboodi, 2016. "The Long-Run Evolution of the Financial Sector," 2016 Meeting Papers 530, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Josef Falkinger, 2014. "In search of economic reality under the veil of financial markets," ECON - Working Papers 154, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    21. Savitar Sundaresan & Jaromir Nosal & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2017. "Market Power and Informational Efficiency," 2017 Meeting Papers 356, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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