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Learning and Complementarities in Speculative Attacks

Author

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  • Itay Goldstein
  • Emre Ozdenoren
  • Kathy Yuan

Abstract

We study a model where the aggregate trading of currency speculators reveals new information to the central bank and affects its policy decision. We show that the learning process gives rise to coordination motives among speculators leading to large currency attacks and introducing non-fundamental volatility into exchange rates and policy decisions. We show that the central bank can improve the ex ante effectiveness of its policy by committing to put a lower weight ex post on the information from the market, and that transparency may either increase or decrease the effectiveness of learning from the market, depending on how it is implemented. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Itay Goldstein & Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan, 2011. "Learning and Complementarities in Speculative Attacks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 263-292.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:78:y:2011:i:1:p:263-292
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdq017
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:jeurec:v:15:y:2017:i:4:p:877-909. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mathevet, Laurent & Steiner, Jakub, 2013. "Tractable dynamic global games and applications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2583-2619.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    4. Kováč, Eugen & Steiner, Jakub, 2013. "Reversibility in dynamic coordination problems," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 298-320.
    5. repec:eee:jfinec:v:131:y:2019:i:1:p:118-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Laurent Mathevet & Jakub Steiner, 2012. "Sand in the Wheels: A Dynamic Global-Game Approach," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp459, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. Angeletos, George-Marios & Pavan, Alessandro, 2013. "Selection-free predictions in global games with endogenous information and multiple equilibria," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
    8. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2018. "Central Bank Forward Guidance and the Signal Value of Market Prices," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 572-577, May.
    9. Edmans, Alex & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2011. "Feedback Effects and the Limits to Arbitrage," Working Papers 11-67, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    10. Lin, Tse-chun & Liu, Qi & Sun, Bo, 2015. "Contracting with Feedback," International Finance Discussion Papers 1143, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2016. "Observing and shaping the market: the dilemma of central banks," Working Papers 1623, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    12. Boleslavsky, Raphael & Kelly, David L. & Taylor, Curtis R., 2017. "Selloffs, bailouts, and feedback: Can asset markets inform policy?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 294-343.
    13. Benhabib, Jess & Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei, 2016. "Sentiments, financial markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 420-443.
    14. Goldstein, Itay & Ozdenoren, Emre & Yuan, Kathy, 2013. "Trading frenzies and their impact on real investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 566-582.
    15. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 346-369.
    16. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1065 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Szkup, Michal & Trevino, Isabel, 2015. "Information acquisition in global games of regime change," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 387-428.
    18. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    20. Dasgupta, Amil & Steiner, Jakub & Stewart, Colin, 2012. "Dynamic coordination with individual learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 83-101.
    21. Darmouni, Olivier & Sutherland, Andrew, 2018. "Learning about Competitors: Evidence from SME Lending," MPRA Paper 93668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Itay Goldstein & Philip Bond, 2012. "Government intervention and information aggregation by prices," 2012 Meeting Papers 225, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2013. "Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets," NBER Working Papers 18906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Xuewen Liu, 2015. "Short-Selling Attacks and Creditor Runs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 814-830, April.
    25. Chong Huang, 2011. "Defending Against Speculative Attacks: Reputation, Learning, and Coordination," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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