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On the Survival of Overconfident Traders in a Competitive Securities Market

Author

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  • Hirshleifer, David
  • Luo, Guo Ying

Abstract

Recent research has proposed several ways in which overconfident traders can persist in competition with rational traders. This paper offers an additional reason: overconfident traders do better than purely rational traders at exploiting mispricing caused by liquidity or noise traders. We examine both the static profitability of overconfident versus rational trading strategies, and the dynamic evolution of a population of overconfident, rational and noise traders. Replication of overconfident and rational types is assumed to be increasing in the recent profitability of their strategies. The main result is that the long-run steady-state equilibrium always involves overconfident traders as a substantial positive fraction of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirshleifer, David & Luo, Guo Ying, 2000. "On the Survival of Overconfident Traders in a Competitive Securities Market," MPRA Paper 15347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15347
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Palomino, Frederic, 1996. " Noise Trading in Small Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1537-1550, September.
    2. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    3. Fischer, Paul E. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1999. "Public information and heuristic trade," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 89-124, February.
    4. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1887-1934, December.
    5. Kyle, Albert S & Wang, F Albert, 1997. " Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2073-2090, December.
    6. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    7. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
    8. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September.
    9. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Luo, Guo Ying, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Natural Selection in a Commodity Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 647-674.
    11. Figlewski, Stephen, 1982. " Information Diversity and Market Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 87-102, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survivorship; Natural Selection; Overconfident Traders; Noise traders;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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