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Which past returns affect trading volume?

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  • Glaser, Markus
  • Weber, Martin

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence suggests and recent theoretical models argue that past stock returns affect subsequent stock trading volume. We study 3,000 individual investors over a 51 month period to test this apparent link between past returns and volume using several different panel regression models (linear panel regressions, negative binomial panel regressions, Tobit panel regressions). We find that both past market returns as well as past portfolio returns affect trading activity of individual investors (as measured by stock portfolio turnover, the number of stock transactions, and the propensity to trade stocks in a given month). After high portfolio returns, investors buy high risk stocks and reduce the number of stocks in their portfolio. High past market returns do not lead to higher risk taking or underdiversification. We argue that the only explanations for our findings are overconfidence theories based on biased self-attribution and differences of opinion explanations for high levels of trading activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:12:y:2009:i:1:p:1-31
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei-Xing Zhou & Guo-Hua Mu & Si-Wei Chen & Didier Sornette, "undated". "Strategies used as Spectroscopy of Financial Markets Reveal New Stylized Facts," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-005, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    2. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
    3. Oberlechner, Thomas & Osler, Carol, 2012. "Survival of Overconfidence in Currency Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 91-113, April.
    4. Abreu, Margarida & Mendes, Victor, 2012. "Information, overconfidence and trading: Do the sources of information matter?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 868-881.
    5. Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2011. "Why Do (Some) Households Trade So Much?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1630-1666.
    6. repec:eee:pacfin:v:48:y:2018:i:c:p:56-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pikulina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Ter Horst, Jenke & Tobler, Philippe N., 2014. "Bonus schemes and trading activity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 369-389.
    8. Chou, Robin K. & Wang, Yun-Yi, 2011. "A test of the different implications of the overconfidence and disposition hypotheses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2037-2046, August.
    9. Nofsinger, John R., 2012. "Household behavior and boom/bust cycles," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 161-173.
    10. Wongchoti, Udomsak & Wu, Fei & Young, Martin, 2009. "Buy and sell dynamics following high market returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 12-20, March.
    11. Orhan ERDEM & Evren ARIK & Serkan YÜKSEL, 2014. "Trading Puzzle, Puzzling Trade," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 29(345), pages 83-102.
    12. Ralf Brüggemann & Markus Glaser & Stefan Schaarschmidt & Sandra Stankiewicz, 2014. "The Stock Return - Trading Volume Relationship in European Countries: Evidence from Asymmetric Impulse Responses," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-24, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    13. Egan, Daniel & Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2014. "Second-order beliefs and the individual investor," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 652-666.
    14. Greg Filbeck & Xin Zhao & Ryan Knoll, 2017. "An analysis of working capital efficiency and shareholder return," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 265-288, January.
    15. Chou, Pin-Huang & Huang, Tsung-Yu & Yang, Hung-Jeh, 2013. "Arbitrage risk and the turnover anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4172-4182.
    16. repec:eee:glofin:v:35:y:2018:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ann Yang, 2013. "Decision Making for Individual Investors: A Measurement of Latent Difficulties," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 303-329, December.
    18. Hua, Wei & Wei, Peihwang, 2017. "National culture, population age, and other country factors in volume–price volatility relationship," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 83-96.
    19. repec:eee:pacfin:v:48:y:2018:i:c:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Bartosz Gębka, 2012. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns, Trading Volume, And Volatility: Lessons From Spillovers Between Asia And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 65-90, January.
    21. Nguyen, Nhut H. & Truong, Cameron, 2013. "The information content of stock markets around the world: A cultural explanation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-29.
    22. Ying Luo, Guo, 2013. "Can representativeness heuristic traders survive in a competitive securities market?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 152-164.
    23. Ran Shao & Na Wang, 2015. "Effects of Aging on Gender Differences in Financial Markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 834-840.
    24. repec:eee:jbfina:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:68-87 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Individual investors Investor behavior Trading volume Stock returns and trading volume Overconfidence Differences of opinion Discount broker Online broker Panel data Count data;

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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