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Speculating against an overconfident market

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  • Caballe, Jordi
  • Sakovics, Jozsef

Abstract

We distinguish two components of self-confidence in a financial market: private confidence measures the self-confidence level of speculators, while public confidence measures the confidence level they attribute to their competitors. We then study how independent changes in these components affect the equilibrium trading strategies. We conduct the analysis in a financial market with imperfect competition where investors submit limit orders We calculate the unique linear symmetric equilibrium as well as the major indicators of the market. In addition to providing a partial explanation for the excess volatility of asset prices as well as for trading volume unexplained by the arrival of new information, our model highlights the differences between the effects of public versus private confidence.
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Suggested Citation

  • Caballe, Jordi & Sakovics, Jozsef, 2003. "Speculating against an overconfident market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 199-225, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:199-225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Palomino, Frederic & Sadrieh, Abdolkarim, 2011. "Overconfidence and delegated portfolio management," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 159-177, April.
    2. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urošević, 2007. "Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(2), pages 313-336, February.
    4. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 26388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    6. Dennis Dittrich & Werner Guth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 471-491.
    7. Glaser, Markus & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Behavioral Finance," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    8. Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Krügel, Sebastian, 2014. "Judgmental overconfidence and trading activity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 827-842.
    9. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    10. Chuang, Wen-I & Susmel, Rauli, 2011. "Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1626-1644, July.
    11. Beracha, Eli & Fedenia, Mark & Skiba, Hilla, 2014. "Culture's impact on institutional investors' trading frequency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-47.
    12. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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