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Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle

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  • Caliendo, Frank
  • Huang, Kevin X.D.

Abstract

Overconfidence is a widely documented phenomenon. In this paper, we study the implications of consumer overconfidence in a life-cycle consumption/saving model. Our main analytical result is a necessary and sufficient condition under which any degree of overconfidence concerning the mean return on savings can produce a hump in the work-life consumption profile. This condition is almost always met in the data. We show by simulations that overconfidence concerning the variance of the return can have little effect on the long-run average behavior of consumption over the life cycle, and that our basic conclusion is fairly robust with various realistic modifications to the baseline model. We interpret the general applicability of our analytical framework and discuss our numerical results in the light of aggregate consumption data.

Suggested Citation

  • Caliendo, Frank & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2008. "Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1347-1369, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:1347-1369
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    8. Foster, Gigi & Frijters, Paul, 2014. "The formation of expectations: Competing theories and new evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 66-81.
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    10. Hou, Shehong & Niu, Yingjie & Yang, Jinqiang, 2018. "Optimal consumption-portfolio rules with biased beliefs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 152-157.
    11. Gao, Nan & Liang, Pinghan, 2019. "Home value misestimation and household behavior: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 168-180.
    12. Emin Gahramanov & Xueli Tang, 2013. "Should We Refinance Unfunded Social Security?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 532-565, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence Consumption Life cycle Time inconsistency Hump shape Elasticity of intertemporal substitution;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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