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The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters

  • Deaves, Richard
  • Lüders, Erik
  • Schröder, Michael

As a group, market forecasters are overconfident in the sense that they are miscalibrated. While overconfidence is persistent, respondents do exhibit some degree of rational learning in that they widen confidence intervals after failure as much as they narrow them after success. Market experience exacerbates overconfidence, primarily through knowledge deterioration.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 75 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 402-412

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:75:y:2010:i:3:p:402-412
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

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