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The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters

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  • Deaves, Richard
  • Lüders, Erik
  • Schröder, Michael

Abstract

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What?s more, more experienced forecasters have ?learned to be overconfident,? and hence are more susceptible to this behavioral flaw than their less experienced peers. It is not just individuals who are affected. Markets also become more overconfident when market returns have been high.
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  • Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:75:y:2010:i:3:p:402-412
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    Cited by:

    1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
    2. Beshears, John & Milkman, Katherine L., 2011. "Do sell-side stock analysts exhibit escalation of commitment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 304-317, March.
    3. Louis Lévy-Garboua & Muniza Askari & Marco Gazel, 2018. "Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 453-482, May.
    4. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    5. Zhixin Xie & Lionel Page & Ben Hardy, 2016. "Investigating gender differences under time pressure in financial risk taking," QuBE Working Papers 045, QUT Business School.
    6. repec:bla:eufman:v:20:y:2014:i:2:p:236-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2009. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 318-329, August.
    8. Christoph Gort & Mei Wang, 2010. "Overconfidence and Active Management," Chapters,in: Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 12 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Caliendo, Frank & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2008. "Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1347-1369, December.
    10. Lunn, Pete, 2011. "The Role of Decision-Making Biases in Ireland's Banking Crisis," Papers WP389, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Shantanu Bagchi, 2011. "Can overconfidence explain the consumption hump?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 41-70, January.
    12. Vetter, J. & Benlian, Alexander & Hess, T., 2011. "Overconfidence in IT Investment Decisions: Why Knowledge can be Boon and Bane at the same Time," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 58030, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    13. Sonsino, Doron & Regev, Eran, 2013. "Informational overconfidence in return prediction – More properties," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-84.
    14. Leppin, Julian Sebstian, 2014. "The Relation Between Overreaction in Forecasts and Uncertainty: A Nonlinear Approach," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100284, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2014. "The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty: A nonlinear approachvon," HWWI Research Papers 158, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    16. Nawrocki, Tomasz Leszek & Jonek-Kowalska, Izabela, 2016. "Assessing operational risk in coal mining enterprises – Internal, industrial and international perspectives," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 50-67.
    17. repec:spt:apfiba:v:8:y:2018:i:3:f:8_3_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
    19. Deaves, Richard & Lei, Jin & Schröder, Michael, 2015. "Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 218, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    20. Kriti Jain & Kanchan Mukherjee & J. Neil Bearden & Anil Gaba, 2013. "Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 1970-1987, September.
    21. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 236-269, March.
    22. repec:arp:ijefrr:2018:p:30-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Rene Schwaiger & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Utz Weitzel, 2018. "Determinants of investor expectations and satisfaction. A study with financial professionals," Working Papers 2018-17, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    24. Johansson Stenman, Olof & Nordblom, Katarina, 2010. "Are Men Really More Overconfident than Women? - A Natural Field Experiment on Exam Behavior," Working Papers in Economics 461, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    25. repec:eee:jbfina:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:68-87 is not listed on IDEAS

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