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Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance – an Interdisciplinary Literature Review

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  • Dorota Skała

    (University of Szczecin, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Insurance and Capital Markets)

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on one of the most meaningful concepts in modern behavioural finance, the overconfidence phenomenon. Overconfidence is presented as a well-developed psychological theory, with main facets comprising miscalibration, betterthan-average effect, illusion of control and unrealistic optimism. The primary applications of overconfidence in contemporary finance are analysed, from the perspective of financial markets and corporate behaviour. Experimental studies, formal models and analyses of market data demonstrate that overconfidence at least partially solves some financial market puzzles that cannot be accounted for by standard economic theory. Overconfidence in the corporate context may affect not only a company’s internal financing structure, but also its interactions with other market participants through merger and acquisition activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorota Skała, 2008. "Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance – an Interdisciplinary Literature Review," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 39(4), pages 33-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:39:y:2008:i:4:p:33-50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Heller, Yuval, 2010. "Overconfidence and risk dispersion," MPRA Paper 25893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Petr Špecián, 2017. "Ekonomická analýza referenda [Economic Analysis of a Referendum]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(4), pages 460-475.
    3. Dolgikh, Sofiia, 2019. "The influence of subjective beliefs in luck on the decision-making under risk: TV show analysis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 56, pages 74-98.
    4. Kubo, Katsuyuki & Nguyen, Thanh Thi Phuong, 2021. "Female CEOs on Japanese corporate boards and firm performance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Chen, Si & Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah, 2018. "Looking at the bright side: The motivation value of overconfidence," DICE Discussion Papers 291, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    6. Abu Khalaf K. Bashar & Firas Y. Hammash, 2017. "Are Amman Stock Exchange Investors Overconfident?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 7-10.
    7. Vetter, J. & Benlian, Alexander & Hess, T., 2011. "Overconfidence in IT Investment Decisions: Why Knowledge can be Boon and Bane at the same Time," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 58030, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    8. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
    9. Artur A. Trzebiński, 2017. "Dryf poogłoszeniowy na przykładzie certyfikatów inwestycyjnych notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(2), pages 173-196.
    10. Harrison, Neil & Agnew, Steve & Serido, Joyce, 2015. "Attitudes to debt among indebted undergraduates: A cross-national exploratory factor analysis," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-73.
    11. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Reactions of the capital markets to the shocks before and during the global crisis," MPRA Paper 41540, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2012.
    12. Bertrand Koebel & André Schmitt & Sandrine Spaeter, 2016. "DO SELF-THEORIES ON INTELLIGENCE EXPLAIN OVERCONFIDENCE AND RISK TAKING? A Field Experiment," Working Papers of BETA 2016-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    13. Habib, Ahsan & Hossain, Mahmud, 2013. "CEO/CFO characteristics and financial reporting quality: A review," Research in Accounting Regulation, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 88-100.
    14. Fasano Antonio & Boido Claudio, 2017. "Concentration and Behavioral Biases in the Active Management of Bric Funds," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(1), pages 58-73, January.
    15. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Overreaction and underreaction on the BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE," MPRA Paper 41555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Sep 2012.
    16. Robert Libby & Kristina Rennekamp, 2012. "Self‐Serving Attribution Bias, Overconfidence, and the Issuance of Management Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 197-231, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; behavioral finance; investor psychology; financial markets; corporate policies; overconfident investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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