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Over-Confidence and Cycles in Real Estate Markets: Cases in Hong Kong and Asia

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Abstract

Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities find that people tend to over-estimate the precision of their knowledge. In this paper we develop a semi-rational model and apply it to the real estate markets in Hong Kong and other Asian countries. The key point is that a person is rational about her/his private information until her/his private information is confirmed by a clearly defined market signal. Using a pre-sale as a mechanism of updating a developer's beliefs, this paper analyzes the impact of over-confidence on overbuilding and cycles in real estate markets. Our finding indicates that a pre-sale activity will increase the magnitude of over-building and over-confidence will increase the volatility in real estate markets. Our model also has implications to the well-established literature dealing with the issue of over-capacity in many industrial sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou & Su Han Chan & K. W. Chau, 2000. "Over-Confidence and Cycles in Real Estate Markets: Cases in Hong Kong and Asia," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 3(1), pages 93-108.
  • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:03:n:01:2000:p:93-108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
    2. Manuel Gottlieb, 1976. "Long Swings in Urban Development," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gott76-1, January.
    3. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Clapp John M. & Giaccotto Carmelo, 1994. "The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 161-183, September.
    5. Smith, Lawrence B. & Ho, Michael H. C., 1996. "The Relative Price Differential between Higher and Lower Priced Homes," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
    7. Hali J. Edison & Pongsak Luangaram & Marcus Miller, 1998. "Asset bubbles, domino effects and 'lifeboats': elements of the East Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 606, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2013. "Financial Crisis and the Co-movements of Housing Sub-markets: Do relationships change after a crisis?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 68-118.
    2. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2008. "Presales, Financing Constraints and Developers?Production Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 345-376.
    3. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    4. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1101-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    6. Charles K. Leung & Kelvin S. Wong, 2004. "The Construction and Related Industries in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment: The Case of Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 7(1), pages 139-170.
    7. Chien-An Wang & Chin-Oh Chang, 2008. "Is It a Heavy Log that Broke the Camel’s Back? Evidence of the Credit Channel in Taiwan’s Construction Industry," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 11(1), pages 38-64.
    8. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Tang, Edward Chi Ho, 2013. "Speculating China economic growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from the stock market IPO and real estate markets," MPRA Paper 46346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2011. "A Rational Explanation for Boom-and-Bust Price Patterns in Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 257-282.
    10. Caliendo, Frank & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2008. "Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1347-1369, December.
    11. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Wei Wang, 2007. "An Examination of the Chinese Housing Market through the Lens of the DiPasquale- Wheaton Model: a Graphical Attempt," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(2), pages 131-165.
    12. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2003. "Pricing Factors in Real Estate Markets: A Simple Preference Based Approach," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 102-120.
    13. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2015. "Speculating China Economic Growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from Stock Market IPOs and Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 45-87.
    14. Diego A. Salzman & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-088/IV/DSF58, Tinbergen Institute.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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