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Over-Confidence and Cycles in Real Estate Markets: Cases in Hong Kong and Asia

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Abstract

Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities find that people tend to over-estimate the precision of their knowledge. In this paper we develop a semi-rational model and apply it to the real estate markets in Hong Kong and other Asian countries. The key point is that a person is rational about her/his private information until her/his private information is confirmed by a clearly defined market signal. Using a pre-sale as a mechanism of updating a developer's beliefs, this paper analyzes the impact of over-confidence on overbuilding and cycles in real estate markets. Our finding indicates that a pre-sale activity will increase the magnitude of over-building and over-confidence will increase the volatility in real estate markets. Our model also has implications to the well-established literature dealing with the issue of over-capacity in many industrial sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou & Su Han Chan & K. W. Chau, 2000. "Over-Confidence and Cycles in Real Estate Markets: Cases in Hong Kong and Asia," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 93-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:03:n:01:2000:p:93-108
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2013. "Financial Crisis and the Co-movements of Housing Sub-markets: Do relationships change after a crisis?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 16(1), pages 68-118.
    2. Ray Forrest & James Lee, 2004. "Cohort Effects, Differential Accumulation and Hong Kong's Volatile Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 41(11), pages 2181-2196, October.
    3. Diego Salzman, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," ERES eres2013_334, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Gao, Nan & Liang, Pinghan, 2019. "Home value misestimation and household behavior: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 168-180.
    5. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2008. "Presales, Financing Constraints and Developers?Production Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 345-376.
    6. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    7. Patrick Krieger & Carsten Lausberg, 2021. "Entscheidungen, Entscheidungsfindung und Entscheidungsunterstützung in der Immobilienwirtschaft: Eine systematische Literaturübersicht [Decisions, decision-making and decisions support systems in r," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, April.
    8. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chin-Yu Wang & Jhih-Hong Zeng, 2017. "Housing price–volume correlations and boom–bust cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1423-1450, June.
    9. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.
    10. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    11. Erol, Isil & Unal, Umut, 2015. "Role of Construction Sector in Economic Growth: New Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 68263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Charles K. Leung & Kelvin S. Wong, 2004. "The Construction and Related Industries in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment: The Case of Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 139-170.
    13. Chien-An Wang & Chin-Oh Chang, 2008. "Is It a Heavy Log that Broke the Camel’s Back? Evidence of the Credit Channel in Taiwan’s Construction Industry," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 11(1), pages 38-64.
    14. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2015. "Speculating China Economic Growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from Stock Market IPOs and Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 45-87.
    15. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2011. "A Rational Explanation for Boom-and-Bust Price Patterns in Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 14(3), pages 257-282.
    16. Caliendo, Frank & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2008. "Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1347-1369, December.
    17. Sándor Nagy & Ilhan Edin Yildirim, 2018. "Construction Industry And Economic Growth In The Republic Of Turkey," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 140-162, December.
    18. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Wei Wang, 2007. "An Examination of the Chinese Housing Market through the Lens of the DiPasquale- Wheaton Model: a Graphical Attempt," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 10(2), pages 131-165.
    19. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2003. "Pricing Factors in Real Estate Markets: A Simple Preference Based Approach," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 102-120.
    20. L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2019. "What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 209-232, August.
    21. Diego A. Salzman & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-088/IV/DSF58, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Zan Yang & Shuping Wu, 2019. "Land acquisition outcome, developer risk attitude and land development timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 233-271, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market signal; over capacity; pre-sale; real estate cycle; semi-ration model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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