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A Rational Explanation for Boom-and-Bust Price Patterns in Real Estate Markets

  • Su Han Chan

    ()

    (Department of Real Estate at the Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College/CUNY)

  • Ko Wang

    ()

    (Newman Chair in Real Estate Finance, Department of Real Estate at the Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College/CUNY)

  • Jing Yang

    ()

    (Department of Finance at the Mihaylo College of Business and Economics, California State University¡VFullerton)

Registered author(s):

This paper develops a stylized model to provide a rational explanation for the boom-and-bust price movement pattern that we frequently observe in the real world. Our stylized model indicates that there are three conditions to form a boom-and-bust price pattern in a community: a move-in of high income residents, wide income gap between new and existing residents, and supply process that leads to an inventory buildup. It seems that, based on these three conditions, China is more likely to experience a boom-and-bust price movement pattern than a developed country with a more mature and less vibrant economy.

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Article provided by Asian Real Estate Society in its journal International Real Estate Review.

Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 257-282

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Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:14:n:03:2011:p:257-282
Contact details of provider: Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Urban Growth and Housing Supply," NBER Working Papers 11097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2010. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Working Papers 16230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model," NBER Working Papers 14669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
  12. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
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  16. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2008. "Presales, Financing Constraints and Developers?Production Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 345-376.
  17. Rose Lai & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2007. "Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers’ Option Exercise Strategies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 159-188, January.
  18. Harter-Dreiman, Michelle, 2004. "Drawing inferences about housing supply elasticity from house price responses to income shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 316-337, March.
  19. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
  20. Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou & Su Han Chan & K. W. Chau, 2000. "Over-Confidence and Cycles in Real Estate Markets: Cases in Hong Kong and Asia," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 3(1), pages 93-108.
  21. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
  22. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Residential Construction: Using the Urban Growth Model to Estimate Housing Supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 85-109, July.
  23. William C. Wheaton, 2005. "Ski Resort Real Estate: Does Supply prevent Appreciation?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-16.
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