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Global Cities and Local Challenges: Booms and Busts in the London Real Estate Market

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In this paper we investigate the dynamic features of house prices in London. Using a generalized smooth transition model (GSTAR) we show that dynamic symmetry in price cycles in the London housing market is strongly rejected. We also show that the GSTAR model is able to replicate the features of the observed cycle in the simulated data. Further, our results show that the proposed model performs well when compared to other linear and nonlinear speci?cations in a out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

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  • Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2020. "Global Cities and Local Challenges: Booms and Busts in the London Real Estate Market," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202011, University of Turin.
    • Handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:202011
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    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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