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Generalizing Smooth Transition Autoregressions

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  • Emilio Zanetti Chini

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)

Abstract

We introduce a new time series model capable to parametrize the joint asymmetry in duration and length of cycles - the dynamic asymmetry - by using a particular generalization of the logistic function. The modelling strategy is discussed in detail, with particular emphasis on two asymmetry tests and relative diagnostics, whose power properties are explored via Monte Carlo experiments. Several case studies illustrate the high versatility of the new model, which is able to characterize the dynamic asymmetry in the cycle in different fields. In a rolling forecasting exercise our model beats its linear and conventional nonlinear competitors in point forecasting, while this superiority becomes less evident in density forecasting, specially when relying on robust measures. Finally, dynamic asymmetry is an important feature to take in account in uncertain environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2017. "Generalizing Smooth Transition Autoregressions," DEM Working Papers Series 138, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0138
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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenza Rossi & Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2016. "Firms’ Dynamics and Business Cycle: New Disaggregated Data," DEM Working Papers Series 123, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Canepa, Alessandra & Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2016. "Dynamic asymmetries in house price cycles: A generalized smooth transition model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 91-103.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trend inflation; monetary-fiscal policy interactions; Markov-switching; determinacy Dynamic asymmetry; Nonlinear time series; Econometric Modelling; Point forecasts; Density forecasts; Evaluating forecasts; Combining forecasts; Uncertainty.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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