A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications
In this paper we introduce a flexible target zone model that is capable of characterizing the dynamic behaviour of an exchange rate implied by the original target zone model of Krugman (1991) and its modifications. Our framework also enables the modeller to estimate an implicit target zone if it exists. A modelling cycle consisting of specification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed. The model is fitted to series of daily observations of the Swedish and Norwegian currency indices and the estimated models are evaluated.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 276-77, July.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991.
"Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the ERM 1979-1992,"
NBER Working Papers
3795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1993. "Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 763-793, May.
- Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. "Testing the basic target zone model on Swedish data 1982-1990," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1441-1469, August.
- Forbes, C.S. & Kofman, P., 2000. "Bayesian Soft Target Zones," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Catherine S. Forbes & Paul Kofman, 2000.
"Bayesian Target Zones,"
Research Paper Series
32, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Catherine S. Forbes & Paul Kofman, 2000. "Bayesian Target Zones," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0575, Econometric Society.
- Brooks, Chris & Reveiz, Alejandro H., 2002. "A model for exchange rates with crawling bands--an application to the Colombian peso," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 483-503.
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998.
"Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1996. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002.
"Evaluating GARCH models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October.
- Stefan Lundbergh & Timo Teräsvirta, 1999. "Evaluating GARCH Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-008/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Evaluating GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 292, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 May 1999.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 1998.
"Soft Exchange Rate Bands and Speculative Attacks; Theory, and Evidence from the ERM since August 1993,"
IMF Working Papers
98/156, International Monetary Fund.
- Bartolini, Leonardo & Prati, Alessandro, 1999. "Soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks: theory, and evidence from the ERM since August 1993," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-29, October.
- Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 1998. "Soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks: theory and evidence from the ERM since August 1993," Staff Reports 43, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996.
"Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Fiorentini, Gabriele & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1996.
"Analytic Derivatives and the Computation of GARCH Estimates,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 399-417, July-Aug..
- Fiorentini,G. & Calzolari,G. & Panattoni,L., 1995. "Analytic Derivatives and the Computation of Garch Estimates," Papers 9519, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
- Torres, Jose L., 2000. "Stochastic intramarginal interventions in target zones," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 249-262, December.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1.
- Klaster, Michel A. & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2002. "Toward an econometric target zone model with endogenous devaluation risk for a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 509-529, August.
- Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. " Intervention Policy and Mean Reversion in Exchange Rate Target Zones: The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 499-513.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April.
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
- Staffan Ringbom, 2003. "Narrow Target Zones within Broad Zones: A Non-Speculative Exchange Rate Solution with Limited Resources," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 319-341, July.
- Gabriela Mundaca, B., 2000. "The effect of interventions on realignment probabilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 323-347, December.
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
- Iannizzotto, Matteo & Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C96-110, March.
- Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 255-69, July.
- repec:sae:niesru:v:167:y::i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:131:y:2006:i:1-2:p:579-609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.