IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/660.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Informal one-sided target zone model and the Swiss franc

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-Fu Chen
  • Michael Funke
  • Richhild Moessner

Abstract

This paper develops a new theoretical model with an asymmetric informal one-sided exchange rate target zone, with an application to the Swiss franc following the removal of the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro in January 2015. We extend and generalize the standard target zone model of Krugman (1991) by introducing perceived uncertainty about the lower edge of the band. We find that informal soft edge target zone bands lead to weaker honeymoon effects, wider target zone ranges and higher exchange rate volatility than formal target zone bands. These results suggest that it would be beneficial for exchange rate policy intentions to be stated clearly in order to anchor exchange rate expectations and reduce exchange rate volatility. We also study how exchange rate dynamics can be characterized in models in which financial markets are aware of occasional changes in the policy regime. We show that expected changes in the central bank's exchange rate policy may lead to exchange rate oscillations, providing an additional source of exchange rate volatility, and to capture this it is important to take into account the possibility of regime changes in exchange rate policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2017. "Informal one-sided target zone model and the Swiss franc," BIS Working Papers 660, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:660
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work660.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work660.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Jong, F, 1994. "A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 31-45, Jan.-Marc.
    2. Chen Yu-Fu & Funke Michael & Glanemann Nicole, 2013. "Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong’s currency board," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 373-393, September.
    3. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Modeling The Evolution Of Expectations And Uncertainty In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 717-756, May.
    4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Exchange rates, inflation, and the sterilization problem: Germany, 1975-1981," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 161-189.
    6. Ranaldo, Angelo & Rossi, Enzo, 2010. "The reaction of asset markets to Swiss National Bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 486-503, April.
    7. Angel Serrat, 2000. "Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Multilateral Target Zone," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 193-211.
    8. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Erlandsson, Ulf G., 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 314-320, July.
    10. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    11. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-79, February.
    12. Daude, Christian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Nagengast, Arne J., 2016. "On the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 239-261.
    13. Amador, Manuel & Bianchi, Javier & Bocola, Luigi & Perri, Fabrizio, 2016. "Reverse speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 125-137.
    14. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    15. Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April.
    16. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
    18. Klein, Michael W. & Lewis, Karen K., 1993. "Learning about intervention target zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 275-295, November.
    19. Streit, Daniel, 2016. "Firm-level effects of asymmetric intervention in foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the Swiss currency floor," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 289-312.
    20. Werner, Alejandro M., 1995. "Exchange rate target zones, realignments and the interest rate differential: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 353-367, November.
    21. Moessner, Richhild & Allen, William A., 2013. "Central bank swap line effectiveness during the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 167-178.
    22. Boyer, Russell S, 1978. "Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1045-1055, December.
    23. Dibeh, Ghassan, 2006. "Target zone dynamics where the fundamental follows a SDE with periodic forcing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 437-445.
    24. Tristani, Oreste, 1994. " Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 1-14.
    25. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    26. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    27. Reeves, Silke Fabian, 1997. "Exchange rate management when sterilized interventions represent signals of monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 339-360.
    28. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    29. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May.
    30. William A. Allen & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "The Liquidity Consequences of the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 14(1), pages 103-126, January.
    31. Dietrich Domanski & Emanuel Kohlscheen & Ramon Moreno, 2016. "Foreign exchange market intervention in EMEs: what has changed?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    32. Urban J. Jermann, 2016. "Financial Markets’ Views about the Euro-Swiss Franc Floor," NBER Working Papers 21977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Swiss franc; target zone model; exchange rate interventions;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:660. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.