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Communication about future policy rates in theory and practice: A Survey

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  • Richhild Moessner
  • David-Jan Jansen
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

We discuss the theoretical rationale for central bank communication about future policy rates as part of inflation targeting or of forward guidance. We also summarize actual central bank communication about future policy rates in major advanced countries as well as empirical evidence on the effectiveness of both types of communication. We argue that there is a disconnect between the theory and practice of forward guidance, with theory assuming commitment by the central bank, while in practice central banks generally do not commit. Future theoretical research on forward guidance should therefore take the absence of commitment by central banks into account.

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  • Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2015. "Communication about future policy rates in theory and practice: A Survey," DNB Working Papers 475, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:475
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    Cited by:

    1. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2013. "The stimulative effect of forward guidance," Working Papers 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 30 Apr 2014.
    2. Marc de la Barrera & Juraj Falath & Dorian Henricot & Jean-Alexandre Vaglio, 2017. "The Impact of Forward Guidance on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the ECB," Working Papers 1010, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Charles Bean, 2016. "Living with Low for Long," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(592), pages 507-522, May.
    4. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:4:p:1593-1624 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    Keywords

    Central bank communication; interest rate forecasts; forward guidance; inflation targeting;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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