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Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kongs Currency Board

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  • Chen, Yu-Fu
  • Funke, Michael
  • Glanemann, Nicole

Abstract

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Glanemann, Nicole, 2010. "Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kongs Currency Board," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-38, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:169
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    3. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Mizrach, Bruce, 2006. "Assessing central bank credibility during the ERM crises: Comparing option and spot market-based forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 28-54, April.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2014. "The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 311-336, April.
    5. Cho-Hoi Hui & Tom Fong, 2007. "Is the Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate "Bounded" in the Convertibility Zone?," Working Papers 0713, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    6. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    8. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2007. "Assessing the Credibility of The Convertibility Zone of The Hong Kong Dollar," Working Papers 0719, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
    10. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gerlach, Stefan, 2005. "Monetary operations by Hong Kong's Currency Board," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1119-1135, January.
    12. Frank Leung & Philip Ng, 2007. "Is the Hong Kong Dollar Real Exchange Rate Misaligned?," Working Papers 0721, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    13. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    14. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, May.
    15. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Glanemann, Nicole, 2009. "A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-61, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    16. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
    17. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2017. "Informal one-sided target zone model and the Swiss franc," BIS Working Papers 660, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Hertrich Markus, 2016. "The Costs of Implementing a Unilateral One-Sided Exchange Rate Target Zone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(1), pages 91-120, May.
    3. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2014. "The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 311-336, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Board Arrangement; Target Zone Model; Hong Kong;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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