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"Incohérence temporelle" de la politique monétaire optimale. Un argument en faveur des zones cibles

  • Daniel Laskar

[eng] The paper considers the problem faced by a central bank which wants to sta­bilize both the exchange rate and the interest rate. In the absence of commitment the equilibrium policy (the "time consistent policy") is not optimal. It is shown that a commitment to an exchange-rate target zone system may be beneficial for two reasons. First, by stabilizing the exchange rate this makes the solution closer to a commitment to the optimal linear stationary rule. Second, through the "honey­moon effect" a commitment to a target zone shares some additional property with the optimal policy under commitment. [fre] Le texte considère le problème que doit résoudre une Banque centrale qui veut stabiliser à la fois le taux de change et le taux d'intérêt. En l'absence de pos­sibilité d'engagement, la politique d'équilibre (la politique « temporellement cohé­rente ») n'est pas optimale. On montre que s'engager à maintenir le taux de change à l'intérieur d'une zone cible peut être bénéfique pour deux raisons. En premier lieu, parce que stabiliser le taux de change permet de se rapprocher de la solution linéaire stationnaire optimale. En second lieu, à travers l'effet de « lune de miel » une zone cible possède une propriété additionnelle commune avec la poli­tique qui est optimale lorsqu'il est possible de s'engager sur la politique future.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/reco.1997.409861
Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1997_num_48_1_409861
Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 48 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 5-22

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1997_num_48_1_409861
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1997.409861
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/reco

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  1. Beetsma, Roel & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1992. "Exchange Rate Bands and Optimal Monetary Accommodation Under a Dirty Float," CEPR Discussion Papers 725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  4. Laskar Daniel, 1985. "International cooperation and exchange rate stabilization," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8506, CEPREMAP.
  5. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:35:p:03 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
  7. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
  8. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  9. Cukierman, Alex & Leiderman, Leonardo & Spiegel, Yossi, 1994. "Choosing the Width of Exchange Rate Bands - Credibility vs. Flexibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 907, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Laffargue, Jean-Pierre & Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi, 1993. "Dynamique des taux de change à l'intérieur du SME," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9301, CEPREMAP.
  11. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  12. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1994. "Optimal Target Zones: How an Exchange Rate Mechanism Can Improve Upon Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 1031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Daniel Cohen & Philippe Michel, 1988. "How Should Control Theory Be Used to Calculate a Time-Consistent Government Policy?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 263-274.
  14. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  15. Beetsma, R.M. & Van Der Ploeg, F., 1992. "Exchange Rate Bands and Optimal Monetary Accomodatin under a Dirty Flow," Papers 9213, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  16. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:35 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
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