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"Incohérence temporelle" de la politique monétaire optimale. Un argument en faveur des zones cibles

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  • Daniel Laskar

Abstract

[eng] The paper considers the problem faced by a central bank which wants to sta­bilize both the exchange rate and the interest rate. In the absence of commitment the equilibrium policy (the "time consistent policy") is not optimal. It is shown that a commitment to an exchange-rate target zone system may be beneficial for two reasons. First, by stabilizing the exchange rate this makes the solution closer to a commitment to the optimal linear stationary rule. Second, through the "honey­moon effect" a commitment to a target zone shares some additional property with the optimal policy under commitment. [fre] Le texte considère le problème que doit résoudre une Banque centrale qui veut stabiliser à la fois le taux de change et le taux d'intérêt. En l'absence de pos­sibilité d'engagement, la politique d'équilibre (la politique « temporellement cohé­rente ») n'est pas optimale. On montre que s'engager à maintenir le taux de change à l'intérieur d'une zone cible peut être bénéfique pour deux raisons. En premier lieu, parce que stabiliser le taux de change permet de se rapprocher de la solution linéaire stationnaire optimale. En second lieu, à travers l'effet de « lune de miel » une zone cible possède une propriété additionnelle commune avec la poli­tique qui est optimale lorsqu'il est possible de s'engager sur la politique future.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Laskar, 1997. ""Incohérence temporelle" de la politique monétaire optimale. Un argument en faveur des zones cibles," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 5-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1997_num_48_1_409861
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1997.409861
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    3. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1993. "Why have a target zone?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 279-314, June.
    5. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1996. "Optimal target zones: How an exchange rate mechanism can improve upon discretion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1641-1660.
    6. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:35:p:03 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    8. Daniel Cohen & Philippe Michel, 1988. "How Should Control Theory Be Used to Calculate a Time-Consistent Government Policy?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 263-274.
    9. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 1994. "Dynamique des taux de change à l'intérieur du SME," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 35, pages 47-85.
    10. Beetsma, R.M. & Van Der Ploeg, F., 1992. "Exchange Rate Bands and Optimal Monetary Accomodatin under a Dirty Flow," Papers 9213, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    11. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & van der Ploeg, F., 1992. "Exchange rate bands and optimal monetary accomodation under a dirty float," Discussion Paper 1992-13, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Laskar, Daniel, 1986. "International cooperation and exchange rate stabilization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 151-164, August.
    13. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    14. Cukierman, Alex & Leiderman, Leonardo & Spiegel, Yossi, 1994. "Choosing the Width of Exchange Rate Bands - Credibility vs. Flexibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 907, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
    16. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
    17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Meixing, 1998. "Les effets stabilisants de la zone-cible du taux d’inflation
      [The stabilising effects of inflation-targeting zone]
      ," MPRA Paper 13856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2001.

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