Inflation Rules with Consistent Escape Clauses
Simple inflation targets may be supplemented with an escape clause to be evoked in case the economy is hit by a major supply shock. In this paper, consistent solutions to the Flood and Isard (1990) escape clause model are derived in the spirit of Lohmann (1990), She showed that Flood and Isard's assumption of symmetric boundary values of shocks, outside of which the zero inflation rule should be broken, is inconsistent if the output or employment target differs from the natural rate. This is quantitatively important since the optimal boundary values in the consistent model are highly asymmetric. The effects of unemployment persistence on the optimal escape clause are also investigated in a two period version of the model. In the second period, monetary policy should respond more often to supply shocks if unemployment is persistent. The first period effect may be of either sign.
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|Date of creation:||Jan 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming in European Economic Review.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden|
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- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997.
"Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 61-77, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," NBER Working Papers 3603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15n3p5dt, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld., 1996. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-075, University of California at Berkeley.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," CEPR Discussion Papers 518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
- Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
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