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Dynamique des taux de change à l'intérieur du SME

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  • Laffargue, Jean-Pierre
  • Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi

Abstract

This paper gives an interpretation of the working of the EMS in the eighties. On one hand French franc, Belgium franc, and Irish pound, appear to have been stabilized around implicit central parities, which were revised from time to time. On the other hand, lira and Danish crown have followed a random walk with jumps. The econometric method we have used, computes implicit central parities, the times of their realignments and the probabilities that the market gave to them for the near future.
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Suggested Citation

  • Laffargue, Jean-Pierre & Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi, 1993. "Dynamique des taux de change à l'intérieur du SME," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9301, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:9301
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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/couv_orange/co9301.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Artus & Claude Jessua, 1996. "La spéculation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 409-424.
    2. Pierre Jaillet & Christian Pfister, 1993. "Du SME à la monnaie unique," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 262(1), pages 21-36.
    3. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Thierry Roncalli, 1996. "Retour à la moyenne dans les cours du change du mécanisme de change européen : 1987-1995," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 189-205.
    4. Daniel Laskar, 1997. ""Incohérence temporelle" de la politique monétaire optimale. Un argument en faveur des zones cibles," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 5-22.

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