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On the Choice of an Exchange Regime: Target Zones Revisited

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylised facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchange rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

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Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2002/10.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2002_10
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  1. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," Papers 466, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. " Intervention Policy and Mean Reversion in Exchange Rate Target Zones: The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 499-513.
  5. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  9. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes," Business School Working Papers 2011-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  10. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," NBER Working Papers 2998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  12. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June.
  13. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Donald J. Mathieson & Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," IMF Working Papers 91/15, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1996. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May.
  18. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 1996. "Interest rate parity and foreign exchange risk premia in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 369-382, June.
  19. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
  20. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
  21. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
  22. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  23. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  24. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  25. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May.
  26. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
  27. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Occasional Interventions to Target Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 691-715, September.
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