Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Distribution and Volatility under the Portuguese Target Zone
The aim of this study is to analyse the exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the participation of the Portuguese economy in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. Portugal adopted this exchange rate target zone from April 6 1992 until December 31 1998. During this period, the exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Paul Krugman (1991) model. The analysis of the data also shows that exchange rate volatility tended to increase as the exchange rate approached the edges of the band, contrary to the predictions of the basic model. Interest rate differential volatility, on the other hand, seemed to behave in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests an increase in the credibility of monetary policy, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of a target zone has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation in the European Monetary Union (EMU). The Portuguese integration process should therefore be considered as an example to be followed by other small open economies in transition to the euro area.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990.
"An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones,"
NBER Working Papers
3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
- Donald J. Mathieson & Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," IMF Working Papers 91/15, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Steven Phillips, 1991.
"The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?,"
NBER Working Papers
3819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou & Chang, Juin-jen, 2008. "Volatility trade-offs in exchange rate target zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 366-379.
- Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2007.
"Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone: a heterogeneous expectations approach,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2007,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
- Christian Bauer & Paul De Grauwe & Stefan Reitz, 2007. "Exchange Rates Dynamics in a Target Zone – A Heterogeneous Expectations Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2080, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002.
"Fear of floating,"
14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. "Testing the basic target zone model on Swedish data 1982-1990," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1441-1469, August.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008.
"Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth, 2007. "Volatility of Exchange Rates in Selected New EU Members: Evidence from Daily Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2107, CESifo Group Munich.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1987. "Trigger Strategies and Price Dynamics in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 2459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes," Business School Working Papers 2011-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Bordo, Michael D. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2005. "Interest rate interactions in the classical gold standard, 1880-1914: was there any monetary independence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 307-327, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:57:y:2010:i:3:p:261-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivana Horvat)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ivana Horvat to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.