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Off-the-record target zones: Theory with an application to Hong Kong's currency board

  • Michael Funke

    ()

  • Yu-Fu Chen

    ()

  • Nicole Glanemann

    ()

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dyna-mics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

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File URL: http://www.uni-hamburg.de/fachbereiche-einrichtungen/fb03/iwwt/makro/Offtherecord.pdf
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Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 21006.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21006
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  1. Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & de Haan, Jakob & Fratzscher, Marcel & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 0898, European Central Bank.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  3. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  4. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May.
  5. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
  6. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
  7. Gerlach, Stefan, 2005. "Monetary operations by Hong Kong's Currency Board," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1119-1135, January.
  8. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Glanemann, Nicole, 2009. "A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-61, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521485845 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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