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The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen / US Dollar Exchange Rate

  • Michael Funke


  • Yu-Fu Chen


  • Nicole Glanemann


This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions convey signals that communicate information about the exchange rate objectives of central bank. The model is used to analyse the impact of Japanese FX interventions during the period 1999 -2011 on the yen/US dollar dynamics.

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Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 21110.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21110
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  1. Takatoshi Ito & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2004. "What Prompts Japan to Intervene in the Forex Market? A New Approach to a Reaction Function," NBER Working Papers 10456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Seminar Papers 621, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  4. Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Nicole GLANEMANN & Michael FUNKE & Yu-Fu CHEN, . "Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kong´s Currency Board," EcoMod2010 259600064, EcoMod.
  6. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," NBER Working Papers 12953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1992. "The Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  9. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
  10. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High-Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, 02.
  11. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
  13. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 0363, European Central Bank.
  14. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  15. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May.
  16. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1986. "A Guide to Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 2113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hall, Yosuke & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2009. "What drives Yen interventions in Tokyo?: Do off-shore foreign exchange markets matter more than Tokyo market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 175-188, April.
  18. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, December.
  19. Iannizzotto, Matteo & Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C96-110, March.
  20. Menkhoff, L., 1998. "The noise trading approach -- questionnaire evidence from foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 547-564, June.
  21. Fabian Reeves, Silke, 1998. "Partial Credibility, Information Selection and the Signalling Channel of Sterilized Interventions," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 108-130.
  22. Kristian Stegenborg Larsen & Michael Sørensen, 2007. "Diffusion Models For Exchange Rates In A Target Zone," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 285-306.
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