IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkg/wpaper/0719.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Credibility of The Convertibility Zone of The Hong Kong Dollar

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence Fung

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Ip-wing Yu

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

The features under the two-sided Convertibility Zone of the Hong Kong dollar resemble in many ways the target zone exchange rate regime in the literature. Following Tronzano et al. (2000), this paper utilises a Bayesian extension of the Svensson (1991) test, which takes into account the exchange rate movement and the differential between domestic and foreign interest rates, to assess the credibility of the Convertibility Zone since it was introduced in May 2005. The empirical evidence suggests that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has been successful in building a high degree of credibility in maintaining the Convertibility Zone.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2007. "Assessing the Credibility of The Convertibility Zone of The Hong Kong Dollar," Working Papers 0719, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/working/pdf/HKMAWP07_19_full.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
    2. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-175, January.
    3. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2000. "On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172.
    4. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    5. Gianni Amisano & Marco Tronzano, 2005. "Assessing ECB?s Credibility During the First Years of the Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation," Working Papers ubs0512, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    6. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    7. Weber, A.A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Papers 9103, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    8. Cho-Hoi Hui & Tom Fong, 2007. "Is the Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate "Bounded" in the Convertibility Zone?," Working Papers 0713, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    9. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2000. "Assessing the Credibility of a Target Zone: Evidence from EMS Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 107-120, April.
    10. Weber, A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Other publications TiSEM cc204bbc-a02a-41e6-9128-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Weber, A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Discussion Paper 1991-3, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen Yu-Fu & Funke Michael & Glanemann Nicole, 2013. "Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong’s currency board," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 373-393, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2000. "On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172.
    2. S. Sosvilla-Rivero & R. Maroto-Illera, 2003. "Regimen changes and duration in the European Monetary System," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(18), pages 1923-1933.
    3. Francisco Perez-Bermejo & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto-Illera, 2007. "An eclectic approach to currency crises: drawing lessons from the EMS experience," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 503-519.
    4. Jesper Rangvid, 1997. "Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 497-522, September.
    5. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 847-850.
    6. Viktors Ajevskis & Armands Pogulis, 2005. "Repegging of the Lats to the Euro: Implications for the Financial Sector," Working Papers 2005/01, Latvijas Banka.
    7. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Implicit bands in the yen/dollar exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1241-1255.
    8. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    9. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Francisco Pérez-Bermejo, "undated". "Credibility and Duration in Target Zones: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2003-19, FEDEA.
    10. M. Isabel Campos & M. Araceli Rodríguez, "undated". "Crises and Credibility in a Target Zone: A Logit From a Markov-Switching Model," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-05, FEDEA.
    11. Francisco Ledesma Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 2008. "The Credibility of the European monetary System:A Review," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 31(86), pages 005-034, Mayo-Agos.
    12. Lera, Sandro Claudio & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-47.
    13. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
    14. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2003. "How Tight Should Central Bank’s Hands be Tied? Credibility, Volatility and the Optimal Band Width of a Target Zone," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/24, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    15. MacDonald, Ronald & Moore, Michael J., 2001. "The spot-forward relationship revisited: an ERM perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 29-52, March.
    16. Lehmussaari, Olli-Pekka & Suvanto, Antti & Vajanne, Laura, 1992. "The currency band and credibility : The Finnish experience," Research Discussion Papers 37/1992, Bank of Finland.
    17. Dean Corbae & Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 1998. "Endogenous realignments and the sustainability of a target," Working Papers 1994-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Koedijk, Kees G. & Mizrach, Bruce & Stork, Philip A. & de Vries, Casper G., 1995. "New evidence on the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 501-508, April.
    19. Esaka, Taro, 2000. "The Louvre Accord and central bank intervention: was there a target zone?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 107-126, May.
    20. Syed Adnan Haider Ali Shah Bukhari & Muhammad Shahbaz Akmal & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2006. "Impact of Exchange Market Forces on Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates during Globalization Period: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 121-139, Jan-Jun.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Analysis; Credibility; Convertibility Zone; Markov Chain Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0719. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/magovhk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simon Chan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/magovhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.